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New Keynesian models: not yet useful for policy analysis

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Author Info
Ellen R. McGrattan
Patrick J. Kehoe
V. V. Chari

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Abstract

In the 1970s macroeconomists often disagreed bitterly. Macroeconomists have now largely converged on method, model design, and macroeconomic policy advice. The disagreements that remain all stem from the practical implementation of the methodology. Some macroeconomists think that New Keynesian models are on the verge of being useful for quarter-to-quarter quantitative policy advice. We do not. We argue that the shocks in these models are dubiously structural and show that many of the features of the model as well as the implications due to these features are inconsistent with microeconomic evidence. These arguments lead us to conclude that New Keynesian models are not yet useful for policy analysis.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Working Papers with number 664.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmwp:664

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Mankiw, N Gregory, 2001. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff between Inflation and Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages C45-61, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2008. "Five Facts about Prices: A Reevaluation of Menu Cost Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(4), pages 1415-1464, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2008. "On the need for a new approach to analyzing monetary policy," Working Papers 662, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Isabel Correia & Juan Pablo Nicolini & Pedro Teles, 2008. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy: equivalence results," Staff Report 403, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 6112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Kimball, Miles S, 1995. "The Quantitative Analytics of the Basic Neomonetarist Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1241-77, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Peter N. Ireland, 2007. "Changes in the Federal Reserve's Inflation Target: Causes and Consequences," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 1851-1882, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
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  11. Lucas, Robert Jr. & Stokey, Nancy L., 1983. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 55-93. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 2004. "New Deal Policies and the Persistence of the Great Depression: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 779-816, August.
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  13. Modigliani, Franco, 1977. "The Monetarist Controversy or, Should We Forsake Stabilization Policies?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 1-19, March.
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  14. Yun, Tack, 1996. "Nominal price rigidity, money supply endogeneity, and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 345-370, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Andrew T. Levin & Alexei Onatski & John Williams & Noah M. Williams, 2006. "Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 229-312 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2005. "A search for a structural Phillips curve," Staff Reports 203, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Virgiliu Midrigan, 2007. "Menu Costs, Multi-Product Firms, and Aggregate Fluctuations," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/13, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Colander, David C., 2009. "Economists, incentives, judgment, and the European CVAR approach to macroeconometrics," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 3(9), pages 1-21. [Downloadable!]
  2. David Colander, 2009. "Economists, Incentives, Judgment, and the European CVAR Approach to Macroeconometrics," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0912, Middlebury College, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Uluc Aysun & Ryan Brady & Adam Honig, 2009. "Financial Frictions and Monetary Transmission," Working papers 2009-24, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2008. "Investment shocks and business cycles," Working Paper Series WP-08-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2008. "On the need for a new approach to analyzing monetary policy," Working Papers 662, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. John F. Cogan & Tobias Cwik & John B. Taylor & Volker Wieland, 2009. "New Keynesian versus Old Keynesian Government Spending Multipliers," Working Paper Series 1090, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Ulf Söderström, 2008. "Re-Evaluating Swedish Membership in EMU: Evidence from an Estimated Model," NBER Working Papers 14519, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Ray C. Fair, 2009. "Has Macro Progressed?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1728, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  9. Hillinger, Claude & Süssmuth, Bernd, 2008. "The Quantity Theory of Money is Valid. The New Keynesians are Wrong!," Discussion Papers in Economics 6987, University of Munich, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Benk, Szilárd & Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2008. "US Volatility Cycles of Output and Inflation, 1919-2004: A Money and Banking Approach to a Puzzle," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/28, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section. [Downloadable!]
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