New Keynesian Models: Not Yet Useful for Policy Analysis
Abstract
Macroeconomists have largely converged on method, model design, reduced-form shocks, and principles of policy advice. Our main disagreements today are about implementing the methodology. Some think New Keynesian models are ready to be used for quarter-to-quarter quantitative policy advice. We do not. Focusing on the state-of- the-art version of these models, we argue that some of its shocks and other features are not structural or consistent with microeconomic evidence. Since an accurate structural model is essential to reliably evaluate the effects of policies, we conclude that New Keynesian models are not yet useful for policy analysis. (JEL E12, E60)Download Info
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.Bibliographic Info
Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.
Volume (Year): 1 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 242-66
Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.1.1.242
Contact details of provider:
Email:
Web page: http://www.aeaweb.org/aej-macro
More information through EDIRC
Order Information:
Web: http://www.aeaweb.org/subscribe.html
Related research
Keywords:Other versions of this item:
- V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2008. "New Keynesian models: not yet useful for policy analysis," Staff Report 409, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Ellen R. McGrattan & Patrick J. Kehoe & V. V. Chari, 2008. "New Keynesian models: not yet useful for policy analysis," Working Papers 664, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- V.V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2008. "New Keynesian Models: Not Yet Useful for Policy Analysis," NBER Working Papers 14313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
- E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
References
References listed on IDEASPlease report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lucas, Robert Jr. & Stokey, Nancy L., 1983.
"Optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 55-93.
- Robert E. Lucas Jr. & Nancy L. Stokey, 1982. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in an Economy Without Capital," Discussion Papers 532, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2004.
"Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 947-985, October.
- Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2002. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," NBER Working Papers 9069, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert Lucas & Mike Golosov, 2004.
"Menu Costs and Phillips Curves,"
2004 Meeting Papers
144, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Mikhail Golosov & Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2007. "Menu Costs and Phillips Curves," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 171-199.
- Mikhail Golosov & Robert E. Lucas, 2003. "Menu Costs and Phillips Curves," NBER Working Papers 10187, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 2004.
"New Deal Policies and the Persistence of the Great Depression: A General Equilibrium Analysis,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 779-816, August.
- Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 2001. "New Deal policies and the persistence of the Great Depression: a general equilibrium analysis," Working Papers 597, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Mankiw, N Gregory, 2001.
"The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff between Inflation and Unemployment,"
Economic Journal,
Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages C45-61, May.
- N. Gregory Mankiw, 2000. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff Between Inflation and Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 7884, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- N. Gregory Mankiw, 2000. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff Between Inflation and Unemployment," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1905, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Peter N. Ireland, 2005.
"Changes in the Federal Reserve’s Inflation Target: Causes and Consequences,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
607, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Peter N. Ireland, 2007. "Changes in the Federal Reserve's Inflation Target: Causes and Consequences," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 1851-1882, December.
- Peter N. Ireland, 2006. "Changes in the Federal Reserve's Inflation Target: Causes and Consequences," NBER Working Papers 12492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Peter N. Ireland, 2005. "Changes in the Federal Reserve's inflation target: causes and consequences," Working Papers 05-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2008. "Five Facts about Prices: A Reevaluation of Menu Cost Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(4), pages 1415-1464, November.
- Andrew T. Levin & Alexei Onatski & John C. Williams & Noah Williams, 2005.
"Monetary policy under uncertainty in micro-founded macroeconometric models,"
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory
2005-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Andrew T. Levin & Alexei Onatski & John Williams & Noah M. Williams, 2006. "Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 229-312 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew T. Levin & Alexei Onatski & John C. Williams & Noah Williams, 2005. "Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models," NBER Working Papers 11523, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Noah Williams & Andrew Levin & Alexei Onatski, 2005. "Monetary Policy under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 478, Society for Computational Economics.
- Cogley, Timothy W. & Sbordone, Argia M., 2005.
"A Search for a Structural Phillips Curve,"
Working Papers
05-10, University of California at Davis, Department of Economics.
- Argia M. Sbordone & Timothy Cogley, 2004. "A Search for a Structural Phillips Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 291, Society for Computational Economics.
- Tim W. Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2005. "A Search for a Structural Phillips Curve," Working Papers 510, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2005. "A search for a structural Phillips curve," Staff Reports 203, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Modigliani, Franco, 1977.
"The Monetarist Controversy or, Should We Forsake Stabilization Policies?,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 1-19, March.
- Franco Modigliani, 1977. "The monetarist controversy; or, should we forsake stabilization policies?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Spr suppl, pages 27-46.
- Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007.
"Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
- Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and frictions in US business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE approach," Working Paper Series 722, European Central Bank.
- Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles : a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Working Paper Research 109, National Bank of Belgium.
- Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 6112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Virgiliu Midrigan, 2005.
"Menu Costs, Multi-Product Firms and Aggregate Fluctuations,"
Macroeconomics
0511004, EconWPA.
- Virgiliu Midrigan, 2007. "Menu Costs, Multi-Product Firms, and Aggregate Fluctuations," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/13, Center for Financial Studies.
- Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2008.
"On the need for a new approach to analyzing monetary policy,"
Working Papers
662, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2009. "On the Need for a New Approach to Analyzing Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 389-425 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2008. "On the Need for a New Approach to Analyzing Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 14260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2008. "On the need for a new approach to analyzing monetary policy," Staff Report 412, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Yun, Tack, 1996. "Nominal price rigidity, money supply endogeneity, and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 345-370, April.
- Isabel Correia & Juan Pablo Nicolini & Pedro Teles, 2002.
"Optimal fiscal and monetary policy: equivalence results,"
Working Paper Series
WP-02-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Isabel Correia & Juan Pablo Nicolini & Pedro Teles, 2008. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy: Equivalence Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(1), pages 141-170, 02.
- Isabel Correia & Juan Pablo Nicolini & Pedro Teles, 2008. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy: equivalence results," Staff Report 403, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Isabel Horta Correia & Juan Pablo Nicolini & Pedro Teles, 2003. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy: Equivalence Results," Working Papers w200303, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Correia, Maria Isabel Horta & Nicolini, Juan Pablo & Teles, Pedro, 2003. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy: Equivalence Results," CEPR Discussion Papers 3730, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert Vigfusson, 2003.
"What Happens After a Technology Shock?,"
NBER Working Papers
9819, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert Vigfusson, 2003. "What happens after a technology shock?," International Finance Discussion Papers 768, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Kimball, Miles S, 1995.
"The Quantitative Analytics of the Basic Neomonetarist Model,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1241-77, November.
- Miles S. Kimball & Michael Woodford, 1994. "The quantitative analysis of the basic neomonetarist model," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1241-1289.
- Miles S. Kimball, 1996. "The Quantitative Analytics of the Basic Neomonetarist Model," NBER Working Papers 5046, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003.
"An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area,"
Journal of the European Economic Association,
MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09.
- Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
- Fuhrer, Jeffrey C, 1996. "Monetary Policy Shifts and Long-Term Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(4), pages 1183-1209, November.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001.
"Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy,"
NBER Working Papers
8403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper 0107, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper Series WP-01-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
Citations
Blog mentions
As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:- Kocherlakota Speaks
by Agent Continuum in Agent Continuum on 2010-05-17 18:43:50 - Friedman vs. Microfoundations
by YouNotSneaky! in YouNotSneaky on 2008-10-23 02:10:00 - Blanchard's sad state of macroeconomics
by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2008-10-21 15:04:00 - O Que Ele Anda Lendo???
by Angelo M. Fasolo in The Duke of Hazard on 2010-04-26 04:49:00
Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.
Lists
This item is featured on the following reading lists or Wikipedia pages:Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:1:y:2009:i:1:p:242-66For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jane Voros) or (Michael P. Albert).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

