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Gauging the effects of fiscal stimulus packages in the euro area

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  • Coenen, Günter
  • Straub, Roland
  • Trabandt, Mathias

Abstract

We seek to quantify the impact on euro area GDP of the European Economic Recovery Plan (EERP) enacted in response to the financial crisis of 2008-09. To do so, we estimate an extended version of the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model with a richly specified fiscal sector. The estimation results point to the existence of important complementarities between private and government consumption and, to a lesser extent, between private and public capital. We first examine the implied present-value multipliers for seven distinct fiscal instruments and show that the estimated complementarities result in fiscal multipliers larger than one for government consumption and investment. We highlight the importance of monetary accommodation for these findings. We then show that the EERP, if implemented as initially enacted, had a sizeable, although short-lived impact on euro area GDP. Since the EERP comprised both revenue and expenditurebased fiscal stimulus measures, the total multiplier is below unity. JEL Classification: C11, E32, E62

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1483.

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Date of creation: Oct 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20121483

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Keywords: Bayesian inference; DSGE modelling; euro area; European Economic Recovery Plan; fiscal multiplier; Fiscal Policy;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Fève, Patrick & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2013. "On the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier in the Euro Area," IDEI Working Papers 776, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised Nov 2013.
  2. Pedro R. D. Bom & Jenny Ligthart, 2011. "Public Infrastructure Investment, Output Dynamics, and Balanced Budget Fiscal Rules," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper1119, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
  3. Marco Passarella, 2013. "Financial Integration in the European Union: an Analysis of ECB’s role," Working papers wpaper04, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
  4. Robert Kollmann & Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger & Jan in't Veld, 2012. "Fiscal policy, banks and the financial crisis," Working Paper Research 234, National Bank of Belgium.
  5. Coenen, Günter & Warne, Anders, 2013. "Risks to price stability, the zero lower bound and forward guidance: A real-time assessment," CFS Working Paper Series 2013/06, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  6. Bartocci, Anna & Pisani, Massimiliano, 2013. "“Green” fuel tax on private transportation services and subsidies to electric energy. A model-based assessment for the main European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(S1), pages S32-S57.

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