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Gauging the effects of fiscal stimulus packages in the Euro area

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  • Gunter Coenen
  • Roland Straub
  • Mathias Trabandt

Abstract

We seek to quantify the impact on euro area GDP of the European Economic Recovery Plan (EERP) enacted in response to the financial crisis of 2008-09. To do so, we estimate an extended version of the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model with a richly specified fiscal sector. The estimation results point to the existence of important complementarities between private and government consumption and, to a lesser extent, between private and public capital. We first examine the implied present-value multipliers for seven distinct fiscal instruments and show that the estimated complementarities result in fiscal multipliers larger than one for government consumption and investment. We highlight the importance of monetary accommodation for these findings. We then show that the EERP, if implemented as initially enacted, had a sizeable, although short-lived impact on euro area GDP. Since the EERP comprised both revenue and expenditure-based fiscal stimulus measures, the total multiplier is below unity.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 1061.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1061

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Cited by:
  1. Javier Andrés & J.E. Boscá & Javier Ferri, 2014. "Instruments, rules and household debt: the effects of fiscal policy," Working Papers 1401, International Economics Institute, University of Valencia.
  2. Bartocci, Anna & Pisani, Massimiliano, 2013. "“Green” fuel tax on private transportation services and subsidies to electric energy. A model-based assessment for the main European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(S1), pages S32-S57.
  3. Dimitris Papageorgiou, 2014. "BoGGEM: a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for policy simulations," Working Papers 182, Bank of Greece.
  4. Duarte Bom, P.R. & Ligthart, J.E., 2011. "Public Infrastructure Investment, Output Dynamics, and Balanced Budget Fiscal Rules," Discussion Paper 2011-092, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  5. Coenen, Günter & Warne, Anders, 2013. "Risks to price stability, the zero lower bound and forward guidance: A real-time assessment," CFS Working Paper Series 2013/06, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  6. Fève, Patrick & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2013. "On the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier in the Euro Area," IDEI Working Papers 776, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised Nov 2013.
  7. Marco Passarella, 2013. "Financial Integration in the European Union: an Analysis of ECB’s role," Working papers wpaper04, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
  8. Berg, Tim Oliver, 2014. "Time Varying Fiscal Multipliers in Germany," MPRA Paper 57223, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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