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Fiscal policy in good and bad times

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  • Candelon, Bertrand
  • Lieb, Lenard

Abstract

In this paper we analyze whether the effect of fiscal policy differs across the business cycle. To tackle this question, we use a regime-switching error-correction framework, where nonlinearities are only modeled in the short-run and have no impact on the long-run equilibrium. Regime specific shocks to government revenue and government purchases are identified using sign restrictions. Linear combinations of the impulse responses of these basic shocks are used to construct a deficit-spending shock and a deficit-financed tax-cut shock. We find that active spending policies have a stronger impact in recession, with multipliers exceeding unity, and should be preferred to deficit-financed tax-cuts.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 37 (2013)
Issue (Month): 12 ()
Pages: 2679-2694

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:37:y:2013:i:12:p:2679-2694

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

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Keywords: Fiscal policy; Nonlinearity; Threshold vector error-correction;

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Cited by:
  1. Steven M. Fazzari & James Morley & Irina Panovska, 2012. "State-Dependent Effects of Fiscal Policy," INET Research Notes 3, Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET).
  2. Ine Van Robays, 2012. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and the Impact of Oil Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 3937, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Sebastian Gechert, 2013. "What fiscal policy is most effective? A Meta Regression Analysis," IMK Working Paper 117-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

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