Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Household Leverage and Fiscal Multipliers

Contents:

Author Info

  • Javier Andrés

    (University of Valencia, Spain)

  • José Emilio Boscá

    (University of Valencia, Spain)

  • Javier Ferri

    (University of Valencia, Spain)

Abstract

We study the size of fiscal multipliers in response to a government spending shock under different household leverage conditions in a general equilibrium setting with search and matching frictions. We allow for different levels of household indebtedness by changing the intensive margin of borrowing (loan-to-value ratio), as well as the extensive margin, defined as the number of borrowers over total population. The interaction between the consumption decisions of agents with limited access to credit and the process of wage bargaining and vacancy posting delivers two main results: (a) higher initial leverage makes it more likely to find output multipliers higher than one; and (b) a positive government expenditure shock always produces a positive multiplier for vacancies and employment. The latter result is in sharp contrast with models in which some households do not have access to the financial market (RoT consumers), in which the implied labor market responses to fiscal shocks are inconsistent with the empirical evidence. We also find that the impact on GDP of consolidations is lower when consumers have a more limited capacity to borrow, and that increasing government spending in an episode of intense private deleveraging can still generate positive and significant effects on consumption and output, although the fiscal output (employment) multiplier decreases (increases) with the intensity of the credit crunch. In the model with indebted impatient households we also observe that output (employment) multipliers decrease (increase) markedly with the degree of shock persistence and increase with the degree of price stickiness.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://iei.uv.es/docs/wp_internos/RePEc/pdf/iei_1103.pdf
File Function: First version, 2011
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Economics Institute, University of Valencia in its series Working Papers with number 1103.

as in new window
Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iei:wpaper:1103

Contact details of provider:
Phone: +34 964 728590
Fax: +34 964 728591
Email:
Web page: http://iei.uv.es
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: fiscal multipliers; private leverage; labour market search;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Leeper, Eric M. & Walker, Todd B. & Yang, Shu-Chun S., 2010. "Government investment and fiscal stimulus," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(8), pages 1000-1012, November.
  2. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas Fisher, 2003. "Fiscal Shocks and Their Consequences," NBER Working Papers 9772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Caldara, Dario & Kamps, Christophe, 2008. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks? A VAR-based comparative analysis," Working Paper Series 0877, European Central Bank.
  4. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," NBER Working Papers 13264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Ethan Ilzetzki & Enrique G. Mendoza & Carlos A. Végh, 2010. "How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers?," CEP Discussion Papers dp1016, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  6. Ravn, Morten O. & Simonelli, Saverio, 2007. "Labour Market Dynamics and the Business Cycle: Structural Evidence for the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 6409, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. John Cogan & Tobias Cwik & John Taylor & Volker Wieland, 2009. "New Keynesian Versus Old Keynesian Government Spending Multipliers," Discussion Papers 08-030, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  8. Wendy Edelberg & Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1999. "Understanding the Effects of a Shock to Government Purchases," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(1), pages 166-206, January.
  9. Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi & Jacopo Perego, 2011. "Country Heterogeneity and the International Evidence on the Effects of Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 17272, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. G�nter Coenen & Christopher J. Erceg & Charles Freedman & Davide Furceri & Michael Kumhof & Ren� Lalonde & Douglas Laxton & Jesper Lind� & Annabelle Mourougane & Dirk Muir & Susanna Mursula & Ca, 2012. "Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 22-68, January.
  11. Michael Woodford, 2010. "Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier," Discussion Papers 0910-09, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  12. Afonso, António & Baxa, Jaromír & Slavík, Michal, 2011. "Fiscal developments and financial stress: a threshold VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 1319, European Central Bank.
  13. Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2008. "The effects of fiscal policy on consumption in recessions and expansions," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(5-6), pages 1486-1508, June.
  14. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
  15. Robert E. Hall, 2011. "The Long Slump," NBER Working Papers 16741, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, 2010. "Fiscal Policy in a Model with Financial Frictions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 35-40, May.
  17. Matteo Iacoviello, 2002. "House prices, borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 542, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2004.
  18. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-64, April.
  19. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 75-122 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2010. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 16311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Ramey, Valerie A. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 1998. "Costly capital reallocation and the effects of government spending," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 145-194, June.
  22. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 673-85, September.
  23. Julio A. CARRILLO & Celine POILLY, 2010. "On the Recovery Path during a Liquidity Trap: Do Financial Frictions Matter for Fiscal Multipliers?," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2010034, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  24. Philipp Harms, 2002. "The persistence of government expenditure shocks and the effect of monopolistic competition on the fiscal multiplier," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 54(1), pages 44-55, January.
  25. Eric M. Leeper, 2010. "Monetary Science, Fiscal Alchemy," NBER Working Papers 16510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In Government Spending And Taxes On Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368, November.
  27. José Emilio Boscá & Javier Ferri & Rafa Doménech, 2009. "Search, Nash Bargaining and Rule of Thumb Consumers," Working Papers 0901, International Economics Institute, University of Valencia.
  28. Cogan, John F. & Cwik, Tobias & Taylor, John B. & Wieland, Volker, 2010. "Corrigendum to "New Keynesian versus old Keynesian government spending multipliers" [J. Econ. Dynam. Control 34(3) (2010) 281-295]," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2229-2229, October.
  29. Monacelli, Tommaso & Perotti, Roberto & Trigari, Antonella, 2010. "Unemployment Fiscal Multipliers," CEPR Discussion Papers 7728, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  30. Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "When is the government spending multiplier large?," NBER Working Papers 15394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. Javier Andrés & José E. Boscá & Javier Ferri, 2011. "Household debt and labour market fluctuations," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1129, Banco de Espa�a.
  32. Mayer, Eric & Moyen, Stéphane & Stähler, Nikolai, 2010. "Government expenditures and unemployment: A DSGE perspective," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,18, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  33. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
  34. Arnaud Cheron & Francois Langot, 2004. "Labor Market Search and Real Business Cycles: Reconciling Nash Bargaining with the Real Wage Dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(2), pages 476-493, April.
  35. Brückner, Markus & Pappa, Evi, 2010. "Fiscal expansions affect unemployment, but they may increase it," CEPR Discussion Papers 7766, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  36. Nikolai Stähler & Carlos Thomas, 2011. "FiMod - a DSGE model for fiscal policy simulations," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1110, Banco de Espa�a.
  37. Robert J. Barro & Charles J. Redlick, 2009. "Macroeconomic Effects from Government Purchases and Taxes," NBER Working Papers 15369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. Andolfatto, David, 1996. "Business Cycles and Labor-Market Search," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 112-32, March.
  39. Robert E. Hall, 2009. "By How Much Does GDP Rise if the Government Buys More Output?," NBER Working Papers 15496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  40. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni, 2011. "Credit Crises, Precautionary Savings, and the Liquidity Trap," NBER Working Papers 17583, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. Javier Andrés & Oscar Arce, 2012. "Banking Competition, Housing Prices and Macroeconomic Stability," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(565), pages 1346-1372, December.
  42. N. Gregory Mankiw, 2000. "The Savers-Spenders Theory of Fiscal Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 120-125, May.
  43. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2009. "Government Investment and Fiscal Stimulus in the Short and Long Runs," NBER Working Papers 15153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  44. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Employment: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  45. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2009. "Do Tax Cuts Starve the Beast? The Effect of Tax Changes on Government Spending," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 139-214.
  46. Reuven Glick & Kevin J. Lansing, 2010. "Global household leverage, house prices, and consumption," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jan11.
  47. Jeffrey R. Brown, 2010. "Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 24," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brow09-1, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Cloyne, James & Surico, Paolo, 2013. "Household Debt and the Dynamic Effects of Income Tax Changes," CEPR Discussion Papers 9649, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Pablo Hernández de Cos & Enrique Moral-Benito, 2013. "Fiscal multipliers in turbulent times: the case of Spain," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1309, Banco de Espa�a.
  3. Hashmat Khan & Abeer Reza, 2013. "House Prices, Consumption, and Government Spending Shocks," Carleton Economic Papers 13-10, Carleton University, Department of Economics.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iei:wpaper:1103. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Investigación IEI).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.