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Country Heterogeneity and the International Evidence on the Effects of Fiscal Policy

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  • Carlo Favero
  • Francesco Giavazzi
  • Jacopo Perego

Abstract

This paper argues that the richer frequency and variety of fiscal policy shocks available in an international sample, which makes the use of this evidence attractive, should be analyzed recognizing the heterogeneity that exists across different countries. The main conclusion of the authors’ empirical analysis is that the question “what is the fiscal policy multiplier” is an ill-posed one. There is no unconditional fiscal policy multiplier. The effect of fiscal policy on output is different depending on the different debt dynamics, the different degree of openness, and the different fiscal reaction functions across different countries. Such differences concern not only the size of the multiplier, but sometimes also its sign. There are many fiscal multipliers and an average fiscal multiplier is of very little use to describe the effect of exogenous shifts in fiscal policy on output.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal IMF Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 59 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 652-682

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Handle: RePEc:pal:imfecr:v:59:y:2011:i:4:p:652-682

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References

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  1. Sarah Zubairy, 2014. "On Fiscal Multipliers: Estimates From A Medium Scale Dsge Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55, pages 169-195, 02.
  2. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
  3. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
  4. Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2011. "Are the responses of the U.S. economy asymmetric in energy price increases and decreases?," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(3), pages 419-453, November.
  5. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2010. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 16311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Pesaran, M.H. & Weiner, S.M., 2001. "Modelling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0119, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  7. Atish R. Ghosh & Jun I. Kim & Enrique G. Mendoza & Jonathan D. Ostry & Mahvash S. Qureshi, 2011. "Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies," NBER Working Papers 16782, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Meier, André & Müller, Gernot, 2009. "Fiscal Stimulus with spending reversals," CEPR Discussion Papers 7302, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Favero, Carlo A & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2007. "Debt and the Effects of Fiscal Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 6092, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Alberto F. Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2009. "Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes Versus Spending," NBER Working Papers 15438, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Sims, Eric R., 2012. "Confidence and the transmission of government spending shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 235-249.
  12. Eric M. Leeper, 2010. "Monetary Science, Fiscal Alchemy," NBER Working Papers 16510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2011. "Nonlinearities in the oil price-output relationship," International Finance Discussion Papers 1013, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Ethan Ilzetzki & Enrique G. Mendoza & Carlos A. Végh, 2010. "How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers?," CEP Discussion Papers dp1016, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  15. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2008. "Fiscal Foresight: Analytics and Econometrics," Caepr Working Papers 2008-013, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
  16. Jeffrey R. Brown, 2010. "Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 24," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brow09-1, July.
  17. Ilzetzki, Ethan, 2011. "Fiscal policy and debt dynamics in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5666, The World Bank.
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Cited by:
  1. Søren Ravn & Morten Spange, 2014. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy with a Fixed Exchange Rate," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 451-476, July.
  2. Jonathan A. Parker, 2011. "On Measuring the Effects of Fiscal Policy in Recessions," NBER Working Papers 17240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Jan Kuckuck & Frank Westermann, 2013. "On the Size of Fiscal Multipliers: A Counterfactual Analysis," Working Papers 96, Institute of Empirical Economic Research.
  4. Javier Andrés & José Boscá & Francisco Ferri, 2012. "Household leverage and fiscal multipliers," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1215, Banco de Espa�a.
  5. Agustín S. Bénétrix, 2009. "Fiscal Shocks and The Real Exchange Rate," 2009 Meeting Papers 1137, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Theofilakou, Nancy & Stournaras, Yannis, 2012. "Government solvency and financial markets: Dynamic panel estimates for the European Monetary Union," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 130-133.
  7. Alexander Chudik & Hashem Pesaran, 2014. "Theory and Practice of GVAR Modeling," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1408, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  8. Virkola, Tuomo, 2014. "Exchange Rate Regime, Fiscal Foresight and the Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy," ETLA Reports 20, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
  9. María Lorena Marí del Cristo & Marta Gómez-Puig, 2013. "“Fiscal sustainability and fiscal shocks in a dollarized and oil-exporting country: Ecuador”," IREA Working Papers 201306, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Apr 2013.
  10. Manos Matsaganis & Chrysa Leventi, 2014. "Distributive Effects of the Crisis and Austerity in Seven EU Countries," ImPRovE Working Papers 14/04, Herman Deleeck Centre for Social Policy, University of Antwerp.

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