Tax Multipliers: Pitfalls in Measurement and Identification
AbstractWe contribute to the literature on tax multipliers by analyzing the pitfalls in identification and measurement of tax shocks. Our main focus is on disentangling the discussion regarding the identification of exogenous tax policy shocks (i.e., changes in tax policy that are not the result of policymakers responding to output fluctuations) from the discussion related to the measurement of tax policy (i.e., finding a tax policy variable under the direct control of the policymaker). For this purpose, we build a novel value-added tax rate dataset and the corresponding cyclically-adjusted revenue measure at a quarterly frequency for 14 industrial countries for the period 1980-2009. We also provide complementary evidence using Romer and Romer (2010) and Barro and Redlick (2011) data for the United States. On the identification front, our findings favor the use of narratives à la Romer and Romer (2010) to identify exogenous fiscal shocks as opposed to the identification via SVAR. On the (much less explored) measurement front, our results strongly support the use of tax rates as a true measure of the tax policy instrument as opposed to widely-used, revenue-based measures, such as cyclically-adjusted revenues.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18497.
Date of creation: Oct 2012
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
- H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ACC-2012-11-03 (Accounting & Auditing)
- NEP-ALL-2012-11-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2012-11-03 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-PBE-2012-11-03 (Public Economics)
- NEP-PUB-2012-11-03 (Public Finance)
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- Salvatore Dell'Erba & Todd D. Mattina & Agustin Roitman, 2013. "Pressure or Prudence? Tales of Market Pressure and Fiscal Adjustment," IMF Working Papers 13/170, International Monetary Fund.
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