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Fiscal policy and fiscal fragility: Empirical evidence from the OECD

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  • El-Shagi, Makram
  • Schweinitz, Gregor von

Abstract

In this paper, we use local projections to investigate the impact of consolidation shocks on GDP growth, conditional on the fragility of government finances. Based on a database of fiscal plans in OECD countries, we show that spending shocks are less detrimental than tax-based consolidation. In times of fiscal fragility, our results indicate strongly that governments should consolidate through surprise policy changes rather than announcements of consolidation at a later horizon.

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  • El-Shagi, Makram & Schweinitz, Gregor von, 2021. "Fiscal policy and fiscal fragility: Empirical evidence from the OECD," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:115:y:2021:i:c:s0261560620302485
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102292
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    Cited by:

    1. Kose, M. Ayhan & Kurlat, Sergio & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2022. "A cross-country database of fiscal space," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    2. Zócimo Campos & Juan Tapia Gertosio & Paulina Natalia Gudaris, 2021. "Country Risk Premium: The Case of Chile," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 13(2), pages 317-344, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal multipliers; Fiscal consolidation; Local projections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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