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Expansionary Fiscal Contractions? Evidence from Panel Data

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  • Vincent Hogan

Abstract

We examine the ability of the expansionary fiscal contraction (EFC) hypothesis to explain the performance of OECD economies during fiscal crises. We find some limited evidence in its favour: if public consumption is reduced in response to a fiscal crisis (as defined by a high level of debt), private consumption does seem to increase. However, the size of the effect is smaller than that typically found in other studies. Furthermore, the increase in private consumption is usually not sufficient to offset the direct effect of a reduction in public consumption on output-fiscal contractions are not literally expansionary. Copyright The editors of the "Scandinavian Journal of Economics", 2004 .

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal The Scandinavian Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 106 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 647-659

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Handle: RePEc:bla:scandj:v:106:y:2004:i:4:p:647-659

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References

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  1. Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1995. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experience," CEPR Discussion Papers 1284, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Francesco Giavazzi & Tullio Jappelli & Marco Pagano, 1999. "Searching for Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy," CSEF Working Papers 16, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  3. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 75-122 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Bertola, Giuseppe & Drazen, Allan, 1993. "Trigger Points and Budget Cuts: Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 11-26, March.
  5. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  6. repec:fth:coluec:754 is not listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
  1. Gabriele Giudice & Alessandro Turrini & Jan in’t Veld, 2007. "Non-Keynesian Fiscal Adjustments? A Close Look at Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations in the EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(5), pages 613-630, November.
  2. Niamh Hardiman, 2013. "Rethinking the political economy of fiscal consolidation in two recessions in Ireland," Working Papers 201316, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
  3. Maria Gabriella Briotti, 2005. "Economic reactions to public finance consolidation - a survey of the literature," Occasional Paper Series 38, European Central Bank.
  4. Berben, Robert-Paul & Brosens, Teunis, 2007. "The impact of government debt on private consumption in OECD countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 220-225, February.
  5. Robert-Paul Berben & Teunis Brosens, 2005. "The Impact of Government Debt on Private Consumption in OECD Countries," DNB Working Papers 045, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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