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Expansionary fiscal consolidations in Europe: new evidence

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Author Info
António Afonso

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Abstract

In order to assess the existence of expansionary fiscal consolidations in Europe, panel data models for private consumption are estimated for the EU15 countries, using annual data over the period 1970–2005. Three alternative approaches to determine fiscal episodes are used, and the level of government indebtedness is also taken into account. The results show some evidence in favour of the existence of expansionary fiscal consolidations, for a few budgetary spending items (general government final consumption, social transfers, and taxes), depending on the specification and on the time span used. On the other hand, the possibility of asymmetric effects of fiscal episodes does not seem to be corroborated by the results.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon. in its series Working Papers with number 2006/18.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp182006

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Postal: Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon, Rua do Quelhas 6, 1200-781 LISBON, PORTUGAL
Web page: http://www.iseg.utl.pt/departamentos/economia/

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Related research
Keywords: fiscal policy; expansionary fiscal consolidations; non-Keynesian effects; panel data models; European Union.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Afonso, António, 2007. "An avenue for expansionary fiscal contractions," MPRA Paper 4593, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Ricardo M. Sousa & António Afonso, 2008. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy," NIPE Working Papers 22/2008, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. António Afonso & Peter Claeys, 2006. "The dynamic behaviour of budget components and output – the cases of France, Germany, Portugal, and Spain," Working Papers 2006/26, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.. [Downloadable!]
  4. António Afonso & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2009. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in Portugal: a Bayesian SVAR Analysis," Working Papers 2009/09, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Anton Burger & Martin Zagler, 2008. "US growth and budget consolidation in the 1990s: was there a non-Keynesian effect?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 225-235, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. António Afonso, 2007. "Public finances in Portugal: a brief longrun view," Working Papers 2007/01, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.. [Downloadable!]
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