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Non-Keynesian Fiscal Consolidation in the EU? Ex Post Evidence and Ex Ante Analysis

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  • Giudice, Gabriele
  • Turrini, Alessandro Antonio
  • Veld, Jan in't

Abstract

This Paper analyses the occurrence of non-Keynesian effects in fiscal consolidations in the EU. The analysis is carried out both ex post, i.e. by looking at the emergence of expansionary consolidations in the past and at their characteristics, and ex ante, i.e. by simulating with the European Commission QUEST model under which conditions public finance consolidation would exhibit non-Keynesian effects in the current EMU context. Cross-country analysis shows that roughly half of the episodes of fiscal consolidations that have been undertaken in the EU in the last 30 years have been followed by an acceleration in growth. The consolidations that turned out to be expansionary were in general based on expenditure cuts rather than on revenue increases. Simulations with the QUEST model show that expansionary effects from fiscal consolidations can emerge in the short/medium run provided that consolidations are expenditure-based. Irrespective of the type of expenditure cut simulated, non-Keynesian effects in QUEST are associated with a reaction of aggregate consumption to expected future incomes; in the case of cuts to the government wage bill the investment channel is also relevant.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4388.

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Date of creation: May 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4388

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Related research

Keywords: fiscal consolidations; fiscal policy in the EU; non-keynesian effects of fiscal policy;

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Cited by:
  1. Afonso, António, 2006. "Expansionary fiscal consolidations in Europe: new evidence," Working Paper Series 0675, European Central Bank.
  2. Ant�nio Afonso & Jo�o Tovar Jalles, 2012. "Measuring the success of fiscal consolidations," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(13), pages 1053-1061, July.
  3. António Afonso, 2007. "Expansionary fiscal consolidations in Europe: part of conventional wisdom?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 50, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  4. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2011. "Assessing fiscal episodes," Working Papers Department of Economics 2011/15, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  5. António Afonso, 2007. "An Avenue for Expansionary Fiscal Contractions," The IUP Journal of Public Finance, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3), pages 7-15, August.
  6. Jean-Paul Pollin & Jean-Luc Gaffard, 2013. "Pourquoi faut-il séparer les activités bancaires ?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/1cud3763mom, Sciences Po.

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