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Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy in the EU-15

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Author Info
António Afonso

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Abstract

The possibility of the so called "non-Keynesian" was illustrated by several fiscal episodes in Europe during the last two decades, giving rise to a growing body of both theoretical and empirical literature. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, a simple two period model for private consumption is presented in order to explain the possibility of both Keynesian and non-Keynesian effects of fiscal policy, the main feature being the relation between interest rate and taxes and the existence of rationed consumers. Second, and in order to evaluate the empirical evidence for Europe, panel data models for private consumption are estimated for the EU-15 countries, using annual data over the period 1970 to 1999. The estimation results for the 15 EU countries show some evidence that fiscal policy has the standard Keynesian effects when there are no fiscal adjustments. However, in the presence of fiscal adjustments the traditional Keynesian effects may become non-Keynesian. This reversion occurs basically when the fiscal adjustment is a contractionary one, and is virtually unimportant when the adjustment is a fiscal expansion, revealing therefore some asymmetric consequences of fiscal policy.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon. in its series Working Papers with number 2001/07.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp72001

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Postal: Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon, Rua do Quelhas 6, 1200-781 LISBON, PORTUGAL
Web page: http://www.iseg.utl.pt/departamentos/economia/

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Related research
Keywords: fiscal policy; expansionary fiscal contractions; non-Keynesian effects;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. António Afonso, 2006. "Expansionary fiscal consolidations in Europe - new evidence," Working Paper Series 675, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. António Afonso, 2007. "Expansionary fiscal consolidations in Europe: part of conventional wisdom?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 50, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  3. Maria Neicheva, 2006. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Government Expenditure on Output in Bulgaria: An HP Filter Approach," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-12, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. António Afonso & Christiane Nickel & Philipp Rother, 2005. "Fiscal consolidations in the Central and Eastern European countries," Working Paper Series 473, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Jönsson, Kristian, 2004. "Fiscal Policy Regimes and Household Consumption," Working Papers 2004:12, Lund University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jönsson, Kristian, 2004. "Effective Consumption and Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy," Working Papers 2004:26, Lund University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Francesco Busato & Bruno Charini & Enrico Marchetti, 2004. "Indeterminacy, Underground Activities and Tax Evasion," Economics Working Papers 2004-12, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Doris Prammer, 2004. "Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations? An Appraisal of the Literature on Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy and a Case Study for Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 35-52, October. [Downloadable!]
  9. Johansson, Martin & Jönsson, Kristian, 2003. "Public debt and the effects of government expenditure on private consumption - A Kalman filter analysis of the Swedish experience 1970-1997," Working Papers 2003:3, Lund University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. António Afonso, 2002. "Understanding the Determinants of Government Debt Ratings: Evidence for the Two Leading Agencies," Working Papers 2002/02, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.. [Downloadable!]
  11. Anton Burger & Martin Zagler, 2007. "Reasons for the U.S. growth period in the nineties: non-keynesian effects, asset wealth and productivity," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp095, Vienna University of Economics and B.A., Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Neicheva, Maria, 2007. "Non-Keynesian effects of Government Spending: Some implications for the Stability and Growth Pact," MPRA Paper 5277, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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