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The Impact of Government Debt on Private Consumption in OECD Countries

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Author Info
Robert-Paul Berben
Teunis Brosens
Abstract

Using data for 17 OECD countries from 1983 to 2003, this paper establishes a non-linear relationship between private consumption and the level of government debt. In countries with a high level of government debt, a fiscal expansion is partly crowded out by a fall in private consumption. In contrast, in low debt countries, private consumption is insensitive to changes in government debt. This means that fiscal policy will be less effective in stabilising business cycle fluctuations at higher levels of government debt.

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Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series DNB Working Papers with number 045.

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Date of creation: Jun 2005
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:045

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Related research
Keywords: consumption; government debt; panel data;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Gregory Mankiw, N., 1999. "Government debt," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 25, pages 1615-1669 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Linnemann, Ludger & Schabert, Andreas, 2004. "Can fiscal spending stimulate private consumption?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 173-179, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. G. Peersman & L. Pozzi, 2004. "Determinants of consumption smoothing," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/231, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
  4. Alexander Ludwig & Torsten Sløk, 2002. "The Impact of Changes in Stock Prices and House Prices on Consumption in OECD Countries," IMF Working Papers 02/1, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Bertola, Giuseppe & Drazen, Allan, 1993. "Trigger Points and Budget Cuts: Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 11-26, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Sutherland, Alan, 1997. "Fiscal crises and aggregate demand: can high public debt reverse the effects of fiscal policy?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 147-162, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Becker, Torbjorn, 1997. "An investigation of Ricardian equivalence in a common trends model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 405-431, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Luiz de Mello & Per Mathis Kongsrud & Robert Price, 2004. "Saving Behaviour and the Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 397, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  9. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Roberto Ricciuti, 2003. "Assessing Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(1), pages 55-78, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Lorenzo Pozzi & Freddy Heylen & Maarten Dossche, 2004. "Government Debt and Excess Sensitivity of Private Consumption: Estimates from OECD Countries," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(4), pages 618-633, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Vincent Hogan, 2004. "Expansionary Fiscal Contractions? Evidence from Panel Data," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 106(4), pages 647-659, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. M Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Ron P Smith, 2004. "Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels," ESE Discussion Papers 16, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Schlicht, Ekkehart, 2008. "Public Debt as Private Wealth," Discussion Papers in Economics 2143, University of Munich, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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