Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Searching for Non-Monotonic Effects of Fiscal Policy: New Evidence

Contents:

Author Info

Abstract

Data revisions and the availability of a longer sample offer the opportunity to reconsider the empirical findings that suggest that in the OECD countries national saving responds non-monotonically to fiscal policy. The paper confirms that the circumstance most likely to give rise to a non-monotonic response of national saving to a fiscal impulse is a “large and persistent impulse”, defined as one in which the full employment surplus, as a percent of potential output, changes by at least 1.5 percentage points per year over a two-year period. This particular circumstance remains the only statistically significant one even when we allow for non-monotonic responses to arise when public debt is growing rapidly or interest rate spreads are widening. We find that non-monotonic responses are similar for fiscal contractions and expansions. In particular, an increase in net taxes has no effect on national saving during large fiscal contractions or expansions. For government consumption there is a large, albeit in some specifications less then complete, offset during expansions or contractions.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.csef.it/WP/wp142.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy in its series CSEF Working Papers with number 142.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2005
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Monetary and Economic Studies, October 2005, vol. 23, issue S1
Handle: RePEc:sef:csefwp:142

Contact details of provider:
Postal: I-80126 Napoli
Phone: +39 081 - 675372
Fax: +39 081 - 675372
Email:
Web page: http://www.csef.it/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Fiscal policy; national saving;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Feldstein, Martin, 1982. "Government deficits and aggregate demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20.
  2. Silvia Ardagna, 2004. "Financial markets’ behavior around episodes of large changes in the fiscal stance," Working Paper Series 390, European Central Bank.
  3. Alberto Alesina & Ignazio Angeloni & Federico Etro, 2003. "International Unions," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2001, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  4. Bertola, Giuseppe & Drazen, Allan, 1991. "Trigger Points and Budget Cuts: Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity," CEPR Discussion Papers 599, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. repec:fth:coluec:754 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Giavazzi, Francesco & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2000. "Searching for non-linear effects of fiscal policy: Evidence from industrial and developing countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1259-1289, June.
  7. Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 417, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2004. "Fiscal Policy and Financial Depth," NBER Working Papers 10532, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1995. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experience," CEPR Discussion Papers 1284, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 1992. "Saving, Growth and Liquidity Constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 662, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Gabriele Giudice & Alessandro Turrini & Jan in 't Veld, 2003. "Can fiscal consolidations be expansionary in the EU? Ex-post evidence and ex-ante analysis," European Economy - Economic Papers 195, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  12. Alesina, A. & Perotti, R., 1995. "Fiscal Expansions and Adjustments in OECD Countries," Discussion Papers 1995_25, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  13. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 210-248, June.
  14. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In Government Spending And Taxes On Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368, November.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Fatih Ozatay, 2008. "Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations: New Evidence from Turkey," Working Papers 406, Economic Research Forum, revised May 2008.
  2. Bayoumi, Tamim & Sgherri, Silvia, 2006. "Mr Ricardo's Great Adventure: Estimating Fiscal Multipliers in a Truly Intertemporal Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 5839, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Borys, Paweł & Ciżkowicz, Piotr & Rzońca, Andrzej, 2011. "Panel data evidence on non-Keynesian efects of fiscal policy in the EU New Member," MPRA Paper 32696, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Francesco Trebbi, 2006. "Who adjusts and when? On the political economy of reforms," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2108, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  5. Canale Rosaria Rita & Foresti Pasquale & Marani Ugo & Napolitano Oreste, 2008. "On keynesian effects of (apparent) non-keynesian fiscal policies," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 5-46.
  6. Gabriele Giudice & Alessandro Turrini & Jan in’t Veld, 2007. "Non-Keynesian Fiscal Adjustments? A Close Look at Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations in the EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(5), pages 613-630, November.
  7. Tamim Bayoumi & Silvia Sgherri, 2007. "On the Impact of Income and Policy Shocks on Consumption," DNB Working Papers 152, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  8. Silvia Sgherri & Tamim Bayoumi, 2009. "On Impatience and Policy Effectiveness," IMF Working Papers 09/18, International Monetary Fund.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sef:csefwp:142

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lia Ambrosio).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.