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Fiscal developments and financial stress: a threshold VAR analysis

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Abstract

We use a threshold VAR analysis to study whether the effects of fiscal policy on economic activity differ depending on financial market conditions. In particular, we investigate the possibility of a non-linear propagation of fiscal developments according to different financial market stress regimes. More specifically we employ a quarterly dataset, for the U.S., the U.K., Germany and Italy, for the period 1980:4-2009:4, encompassing macro, fiscal and financial variables. The results show that (i) the use of a nonlinear framework with regime switches is corroborated by nonlinearity tests; (ii) the responses of economic growth to a fiscal shock are mostly positive in both financial stress regimes; (iii) financial stress has a negative effect on output growth and worsens the fiscal position; (iv) the nonlinearity in the response of output growth to a fiscal shock is mainly associated with different behaviour across regimes; (v) the size of the fiscal multipliers is higher than average in the last crisis.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies in its series Working Papers IES with number 2011/16.

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Length: 55
Date of creation: Aug 2011
Date of revision: Aug 2011
Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2011_16

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Keywords: fiscal policy; financial markets; threshold VAR;

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  1. Wolff, Guntram B. & Tenhofen, Jörn & Heppke-Falk, Kirsten H., 2006. "The macroeconomic effects of exogenous fiscal policy shocks in Germany: a disaggregated SVAR analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,41, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  2. van Aarle, Bas & Garretsen, Harry & Gobbin, Niko, 2003. "Monetary and fiscal policy transmission in the Euro-area: evidence from a structural VAR analysis," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(5-6), pages 609-638.
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Cited by:
  1. Javier Andrés & José Boscá & Francisco Ferri, 2012. "Household leverage and fiscal multipliers," Banco de España Working Papers 1215, Banco de España.
  2. Tommaso Ferraresi & Andrea Roventini & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2013. "Fiscal Policies and Credit Regimes: A TVAR Approach," LEM Papers Series 2013/03, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  3. Giovanni Callegari & Giovanni Melina & Nicoletta Batini, 2012. "Successful Austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan," IMF Working Papers 12/190, International Monetary Fund.

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