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A Reconciliation of SVAR and Narrative Estimates of Tax Multipliers

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  • Mertens, Karel
  • Ravn, Morten O

Abstract

Existing empirical estimates of US nationwide tax multipliers vary from close to zero to very large. Using narrative measures as proxies for structural shocks to total tax revenues in an SVAR, we estimate tax multipliers at the higher end of the range: around two on impact and up to three after 6 quarters. We show that earlier findings of lower multipliers can be explained by an output elasticity of tax revenues assumption that is contradicted by empirical evidence or by failure to account for measurement error in narrative series of tax shocks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8973.

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Date of creation: May 2012
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8973

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Related research

Keywords: fiscal policy; measurement error; narrative identification; tax changes; vector autoregressions;

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Cited by:
  1. Dario Caldara & Christophe Kamps, 2012. "The analytics of SVARs: a unified framework to measure fiscal multipliers," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Tommaso Ferraresi & Andrea Roventini & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2013. "Fiscal policies and credit regimes: a tvar approach," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2013-02, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  3. Mertens, Karel & Ravn, Morten O, 2011. "The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 8554, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Jaimovich, Nir & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2012. "Non-linear Effects of Taxation on Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 9261, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Kliem, Martin & Kriwoluzky, Alexander, 2013. "Reconciling narrative monetary policy disturbances with structural VAR model shocks?," Discussion Papers 23/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  6. Gerald Carlino & Robert P. Inman, 2013. "Macro Fiscal Policy in Economic Unions: States as Agents," NBER Working Papers 19559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Reicher, Claire, 2014. "Systematic fiscal policy and macroeconomic performance: A critical overview of the literature," Economics Discussion Papers 2014-29, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  8. Nicoletta Batini & Luc Eyraud & Anke Weber, 2014. "A Simple Method to Compute Fiscal Multipliers," IMF Working Papers 14/93, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Kaszab, Lorant, 2012. "Rule-of-Thumb Consumers and Labor Tax Cut Policy in the Zero Lower Bound," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2012/13, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Apr 2013.

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