Measuring the Effects of Fiscal Policy
Abstract
Measuring the effects of discretionary fiscal policy is both difficult and controversial, as some explicit or implicit identifying assumptions need to be made to isolate exogenous and unanticipated changes in taxes and government spending. Studies based on structural vector autoregressions typically achieve identification by restricting the contemporaneous interaction of fiscal and non-fiscal variables in a rather arbitrary way. In this paper, we relax those restrictions and identify fiscal policy shocks by exploiting the conditional heteroscedasticity of the structural disturbances. We use this methodology to evaluate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy shocks in the U.S. before and after 1979. Our results show substantive differences in the economy’s response to government spending and tax shocks across the two periods. Importantly, we find that increases in public spending are, in general, more effective than tax cuts in stimulating economic activity. A key contribution of this study is to provide a formal test of the identifying restrictions commonly used in the literature.Download Info
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.Bibliographic Info
Paper provided by CIRPEE in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 1016.Length:
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:lvl:lacicr:1016
Contact details of provider:
Postal: CP 8888, succursale Centre-Ville, Montréal, QC H3C 3P8
Phone: (514) 987-8161
Web page: http://www.cirpee.org/
More information through EDIRC
Related research
Keywords: Fiscal policy; Government spending; Taxes; Primary deficit; Structural vector auto-regression; Identification;Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
- H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
- H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-05-15 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-05-15 (Central Banking)
- NEP-ECM-2010-05-15 (Econometrics)
- NEP-PBE-2010-05-15 (Public Economics)
- NEP-PUB-2010-05-15 (Public Finance)
References
References listed on IDEASPlease report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Baxter, Marianne & King, Robert G, 1993.
"Fiscal Policy in General Equilibrium,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 315-34, June.
- King, R.G. & Baxter, M., 1990. "Fiscal Policy In General Equilibrium," RCER Working Papers 244, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009.
"What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Mountford and Uhlig JAE 2009 sign-constrained VAR," Statistical Software Components RTZ00121, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Mountford, Andrew & Uhlig, Harald, 2002. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mountford, A.W. & Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S., 2002. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," Discussion Paper 2002-31, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2008. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," NBER Working Papers 14551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2005. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-039, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Wendy Edelberg & Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1999.
"Understanding the Effects of a Shock to Government Purchases,"
Review of Economic Dynamics,
Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(1), pages 166-206, January.
- Wendy Edelberg & Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1998. "Understanding the effects of a shock to government purchases," Working Paper Series WP-98-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Wendy Edelberg & Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1998. "Understanding the Effects of a Shock to Government Purchases," NBER Working Papers 6737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Karel Mertens & MortenO. Ravn, 2010.
"Measuring the Impact of Fiscal Policy in the Face of Anticipation: A Structural VAR Approach,"
Economic Journal,
Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 393-413, 05.
- Mertens, Karel & Ravn, Morten O., 2009. "Measuring the Impact of Fiscal Policy in the Face of Anticipation: A Structural VAR Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7423, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Tommaso Monacelli & Roberto Perotti, 2008.
"Fiscal Policy, Wealth Effects, and Markups,"
NBER Working Papers
14584, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Monacelli, Tommaso & Perotti, Roberto, 2008. "Fiscal Policy, Wealth Effects and Markups," CEPR Discussion Papers 7099, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hafedh Bouakez & Nooman Rebei, 2003.
"Why Does Private Consumption Rise After a Government Spending Shock?,"
Working Papers
03-43, Bank of Canada.
- Hafedh Bouakez & Nooman Rebei, 2007. "Why does private consumption rise after a government spending shock?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(3), pages 954-979, August.
- Nooman Rebei & Hafedh Bouakez, 2004. "Why Does Private Consumption Rise After a Government Spending Shock?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 20, Society for Computational Economics.
- Nooman Rebei & Hafedh Bouakez, 2004. "Why Does Private Consumption Rise After a Government Spending Shock?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 417, Econometric Society.
- Barro, Robert J., 1974.
"Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?,"
Scholarly Articles
3451399, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
- Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana Iváñez, 1997.
"Identification, estimation and testing of conditionally heteroskedastic factor models,"
Working Papers. Serie AD
1997-22, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
- Sentana, Enrique & Fiorentini, Gabriele, 2001. "Identification, estimation and testing of conditionally heteroskedastic factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 143-164, June.
- Sentana, E. & Fiorentini, G., 1997. "Identification, Estimation and Testing of Conditionally Heteroskedastic Factor Model," Papers 9709, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
- Ramey, Valerie A. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 1998.
"Costly capital reallocation and the effects of government spending,"
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,
Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 145-194, June.
- Valerie A. Ramey & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1999. "Costly Capital Reallocation and the Effects of Government Spending," NBER Working Papers 6283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas Fisher, 2003.
"Fiscal Shocks and Their Consequences,"
NBER Working Papers
9772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Fisher, Jonas D. M., 2004. "Fiscal shocks and their consequences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 89-117, March.
- Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004.
"The impact of monetary policy on asset prices,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
- Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2002. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-4, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Roberto Rigobon & Brian P. Sack, 2002. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 8794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1992.
"Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1015, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
- Mertens, Karel & Ravn, Morten O., 2009.
"Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated U.S. Tax Policy Shocks,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7370, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2012. "Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated US Tax Policy Shocks," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 145-81, May.
- Karel Mertens & Morten Ravn, 2010. "Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated U.S. Tax Policy Shocks," NBER Working Papers 16289, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2009. "Empirical evidence on the aggregate effects of anticipated and unanticipated US tax policy shocks," Working Paper Research 181, National Bank of Belgium.
- Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1999.
"Error Bands for Impulse Responses,"
Econometrica,
Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1113-1156, September.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Sims and Zha(1999) "Error Bands for Impulse Responses"," Statistical Software Components RTZ00145, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1994. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1085, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1995. "Error bands for impulse responses," Working Paper 95-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2008.
"Fiscal Foresight: Analytics and Econometrics,"
Caepr Working Papers
2008-013, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
- Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2008. "Fiscal Foresight: Analytics and Econometrics," NBER Working Papers 14028, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Morten O. Ravn & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2007.
"Explaining the Effects of Government Spending Shocks on Consumption and the Real Exchange Rate,"
NBER Working Papers
13328, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ravn, Morten O. & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2007. "Explaining the Effects of Government Spending Shocks on Consumption and the Real Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 6541, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Morten O. Ravn & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2007. "Explaining the Effects of Government Spending Shocks on Consumption and the Real Exchange Rate," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/23, European University Institute.
- Dotsey, Michael, 1994. "Some unpleasant supply side arithmetic," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 507-524, June.
- Michel Normandin & Louis Phaneuf, 2003.
"Monetary Policy Shocks: Testing Identification Conditions Under Time-Varying Conditional Volatility,"
Cahiers de recherche
03-04, HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée.
- Normandin, Michel & Phaneuf, Louis, 2004. "Monetary policy shocks:: Testing identification conditions under time-varying conditional volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1217-1243, September.
- Michel Normandin & Louis Phaneuf, 2003. "Monetary Policy Shocks: Testing Identification Conditions Under Time-Varying Conditional Volatility," Cahiers de recherche 0337, CIRPEE.
- Mervyn King & Enrique Sentana & Sushil Wadhwani, 1990.
"Volatiltiy and Links Between National Stock Markets,"
NBER Working Papers
3357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- King, Mervyn & Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1994. "Volatility and Links between National Stock Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 901-33, July.
- Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002.
"An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In Government Spending And Taxes On Output,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368, November.
- Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," NBER Working Papers 7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Susan Yang, Shu-Chun, 2005. "Quantifying tax effects under policy foresight," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1557-1568, November.
- Hafedh Bouakez & Michel Normandin, 2008.
"Fluctuations in the Foreign Exchange Market: How Important are Monetary Policy Shocks?,"
Cahiers de recherche
0818, CIRPEE.
- Bouakez, Hafedh & Normandin, Michel, 2010. "Fluctuations in the foreign exchange market: How important are monetary policy shocks?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 139-153, May.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Hafedh Bouakez & Foued Chihi & Michel Normandin, 2011. "Fiscal Policy and External Adjustment: New Evidence," Cahiers de recherche 1123, CIRPEE.
- Francisco de Castro & Daniel Garrote, 2012. "The effects of fiscal shocks on the exchange rate in the EMU and differences with the us," Banco de España Working Papers 1224, Banco de España.
Lists
This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lvl:lacicr:1016For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Johanne Perron).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

