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Fluctuations in the Foreign Exchange Market: How Important are Monetary Policy Shocks?

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  • Hafedh Bouakez
  • Michel Normandin

Abstract

We study the effects of U.S. monetary policy shocks on the bilateral exchange rate between the U.S. and each of the G7 countries. We also estimate deviations from uncovered interest rate parity and exchange rate pass-through conditional on these shocks. The analysis is based on a structural vector autoregression in which monetary policy shocks are identified through the conditional heteroscedasticity of the structural disturbances. Unlike earlier work in this area, our empirical methodology avoids making arbitrary assumptions about the relevant policy indicator or transmission mechanism in order to achieve identification. At the same time, it allows us to assess the implications of imposing invalid identifying restrictions. Our results indicate that the nominal exchange rate exhibits delayed overshooting in response to a monetary expansion, depreciating for roughly ten months before starting to appreciate. The shock also leads to large and persistent departures from uncovered interest rate parity, and to a prolonged period of incomplete pass-through. Variance-decomposition results indicate that monetary policy shocks account for a non-trivial proportion of exchange rate fluctuations.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CIRPEE in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 0818.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:lvl:lacicr:0818

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Keywords: Conditions heteroscedasticity; delayed overshooting; exchange rate pass-through; identification; structural vector autoregression; uncovered interest rate parity;

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References

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  1. Bernanke, Ben S. & Mihov, Ilian, 1995. "Measuring Monetary Policy," Economics Series 10, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  2. Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff., 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-048, University of California at Berkeley.
  3. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers, 1999. "Monetary policy's role in exchange rate behavior," International Finance Discussion Papers 652, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Scholl, Almuth & Uhlig, Harald, 2008. "New evidence on the puzzles: Results from agnostic identification on monetary policy and exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 1-13, September.
  5. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi, 1994. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: How Important are Nominal Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 951, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  7. Michel Normandin, 2003. "Canadian and U.S. Financial Markets: Testing the International Integration Hypothesis Under Time-Varying Conditional Volatility," Cahiers de recherche 03-08, HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée.
  8. Vittorio Grilli & Nouriel Roubini, 1995. "Liquidity and Exchange Rates: Puzzling Evidence from the G-7 Countries," Working Papers 95-17, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
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  10. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier.
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  14. Bouakez, Hafedh & Rebei, Nooman, 2008. "Has exchange rate pass-through really declined? Evidence from Canada," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 249-267, July.
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  24. Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009, November.
  25. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Scholarly Articles 12491026, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Pippenger, John, 2013. "The Failure Of Uncovered Interest Parity, Forward Bias And Related Puzzles," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt50n5p8bv, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
  2. Reinhold Heinlein & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2011. "Effects of monetary policy on the $/£ exchange rate. Is there a 'delayed overshooting puzzle'?," Studies in Economics 1124, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  3. Helmut Lütkepohl & Aleksei Netsunajev, 2012. "Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market: How to Check Sign Restrictions in Structural VARs," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1195, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  4. Hafedh Bouakez & Badye Omar Essid & Michel Normandin, 2010. "Stock Returns and Monetary Policy: Are There Any Ties ?," Cahiers de recherche 1026, CIRPEE.
  5. Kazi, Irfan Akbar & Wagan, Hakimzadi & Akbar, Farhan, 2013. "The changing international transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks: Is there evidence of contagion effect on OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 90-116.
  6. Helmut Luetkepohl & Anton Velinov, 2014. "Structural Vector Autoregressions: Checking Identifying Long-run Restrictions via Heteroskedasticity," CESifo Working Paper Series 4651, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. Reuven Glick & Sylvain Leduc, 2013. "The effects of unconventional and conventional U.S. monetary policy on the dollar," Working Paper Series 2013-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  8. Helmut Lütkepohl & Aleksei Netsunajev, 2014. "Structural Vector Autoregressions with Smooth Transition in Variances - The Interaction Between U.S. Monetary Policy and the Stock Market," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2014-031, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  9. Heinlein, Reinhold & Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 2012. "On the construction of two-country cointegrated VAR models with an application to the UK and US," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62310, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  10. Marcel Fratzscher & Daniel Schneider & Ine Van Robays, 2013. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Asset Prices," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1302, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  11. Pippenger, John, 2012. "The Fragility of Overshooting," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt4rd5j98c, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
  12. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2012. "Identifying Structural Vector Autoregressions via Changes in Volatility," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1259, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  13. Hafedh Bouakez & Foued Chihi & Michel Normandin, 2010. "Measuring the Effects of Fiscal Policy," Cahiers de recherche 1016, CIRPEE.

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