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Does the crowding-in effect of public spending on private consumption undermine neoclassical models?

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  • Ambler, Steve
  • Bouakez, Hafedh
  • Cardia, Emanuela

Abstract

Empirical evidence from vector autoregressions (VARs) showing that public spending shocks crowd in private consumption has been seen as evidence against standard neoclassical models of the business cycle. We show that a standard real business cycle model in which all agents including the government optimize is compatible with the results from the empirical literature. A VAR estimated using artificial data simulated from the model indicates that, under standard assumptions to identify public spending shocks, an increase in public spending is associated with an increase in private consumption and the real wage. The implied impulse responses are qualitatively and quantitatively similar to those in the empirical literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Ambler, Steve & Bouakez, Hafedh & Cardia, Emanuela, 2017. "Does the crowding-in effect of public spending on private consumption undermine neoclassical models?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 399-410.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reecon:v:71:y:2017:i:3:p:399-410
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2017.04.004
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    2. Janusz Jabłonowski, 2018. "Implications of Transitory and Permanent Changes in Tax Rates for Poland," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 2, pages 73-97.
    3. Stylianos Asimakopoulos & Marco Lorusso & Luca Pieroni, 2021. "Can public spending boost private consumption?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(3), pages 1275-1313, November.
    4. Eduardo de Sá Fortes Leitão Rodrigues, 2021. "Uncertainty and Effectiveness of Public Consumption," Working Papers REM 2021/0180, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    5. Samya Beidas-Strom & Marco Lorusso, 2019. "Macroeconomic Effects of Reforms on Three Diverse Oil Exporters: Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UK," IMF Working Papers 2019/214, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Stefano Grassi & Marco Lorusso & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2021. "Adaptive Importance Sampling for DSGE Models," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS84, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Optimal public spending; Business cycles; Public spending shocks; Crowding in;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents

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