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Spurious Welfare Reversals in International Business Cycle Models

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  • Jinill Kim

    ()

  • Sunghyun Henry Kim

    ()

Abstract

Several papers on international business cycles have documented spurious welfare reversals, in that incomplete market economies can produce higher welfare than the complete market economy. This paper demonstrates how conventional linearization, as used in King, Plosser, and Rebelo (1988), can generate approximation errors that are large enough to result in such reversals. Using a two-country production economy without capital, we argue that spurious welfare reversals are not only possible but also plausible under reasonable parameter values. As a constructive alternative, this paper proposes an approximation method that modifies the conventional linearization method by a bias correction---the linear approximation around a 'stochastic' steady state. We show that this method can be easily implemented to accurately approximate the exact solution and therefore produce the correct welfare ordering. The accuracy of the proposed method is far better than that of the conventional linearization method and as good as that of a method involving a second-order expansion.

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File URL: http://www.virginia.edu/economics/RePEc/vir/virpap/papers/virpap319.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Virginia, Department of Economics in its series Virginia Economics Online Papers with number 319.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Oct 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:vir:virpap:319

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Web page: http://www.virginia.edu/economics/home.html

Related research

Keywords: Linearization; Stochastic steady state; Welfare; Risk sharing;

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References

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  1. Michael Woodford, 2001. "Inflation Stabilization and Welfare," NBER Working Papers 8071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Collard, Fabrice & Juillard, Michel, 2001. "Accuracy of stochastic perturbation methods: The case of asset pricing models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 979-999, June.
  3. Ireland, Peter N., 1997. "A small, structural, quarterly model for monetary policy evaluation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 83-108, December.
  4. Harold L. Cole & Maurice Obstfeld, 1991. "Commodity Trade and International Risk Sharing: How Much Do Financial Markets Matter?," NBER Working Papers 3027, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Jinill Kim & Dale W. Henderson, 2002. "Inflation targeting and nominal income growth targeting: when and why are they suboptimal?," International Finance Discussion Papers 719, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. van Wincoop, Eric, 1999. "How big are potential welfare gains from international risksharing?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 109-135, February.
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  9. repec:cup:macdyn:v:1:y:1997:i:1:p:45-75 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-37, February.
  11. Dale W. Henderson & Jinill Kim, 1999. "Exact utilities under alternative monetary rules in a simple macro model with optimizing agents," International Finance Discussion Papers 635, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Henning Bohn, 1999. "Should the Social Security Trust Fund Hold Equities," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 666-697, July.
  13. Benigno, Gianluca & Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules and the Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2807, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 2000. "Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds?," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1895, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
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  16. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1991. "International real business cycles," Staff Report 146, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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  18. Cho, Jang-Ok & Cooley, Thomas F & Phaneuf, Louis, 1997. "The Welfare Cost of Nominal Wage Contracting," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(3), pages 465-84, July.
  19. Otrok, Christopher, 2001. "On measuring the welfare cost of business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 61-92, February.
  20. Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson & Andrew T. Levin, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," International Finance Discussion Papers 640, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  22. Mark Bils & Yongsung Chang, 1999. "Wages and the Allocation of Hours and Effort," NBER Working Papers 7309, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Jinill Kim, Sunghyun Kim, and Andrew Levin, 2001. "Patience, Persistence, and Welfare Costs of Incomplete Markets in Open Economies," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 7, Society for Computational Economics.
  24. Ellen R. McGrattan, 1991. "The macroeconomic effects of distortionary taxation," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 37, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  25. Jess Gaspar & Kenneth L. Judd, 1997. "Solving Large Scale Rational Expectations Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Lewis, Karen K., 2000. "Why do stocks and consumption imply such different gains from international risk sharing?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 1-35, October.
  27. Obstfeld, M., 1998. "Risk and Exchange Rate," Papers 193, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
  28. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341.
  29. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
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