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The Output, Employment, and Interest Rate Effects of Government Consumption

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Author Info
S. Rao Aiyagari
Lawrence J. Christiano
Martin Eichenbaum

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Abstract

This paper investigates the impact on aggregate variables of changes in government consumption in the context of a stochastic, neoclassical growth model. We show, theoretically, that the impact on output and employment of a persistent change in government consumption exceeds that of a temporary change. We also show that, in principle, there can be an analog to the Keynesian multiplier in the neoclassical growth model. Finally, in an empirically plausible version of the model, we show that the interest rate impact of a persistent government consumption shock exceeds that of a temporary one. Our results provide counter examples to existing claims in the literature.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3330.

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Date of creation: Apr 1990
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Publication status: published as Journal of Monetary Economics, 1992
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3330

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  1. Hall, Robert E., 1980. "Labor supply and aggregate fluctuations," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 7-33, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Mankiw, N Gregory & Rotemberg, Julio J & Summers, Lawrence H, 1985. "Intertemporal Substitution in Macroeconomics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(1), pages 225-51, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Hadar, Josef & Russell, William R, 1969. "Rules for Ordering Uncertain Prospects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 25-34, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Baxter, M. & King, R.G., 1988. "Multipliers In Equilibrium Business Cycle Models," RCER Working Papers 166, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  5. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Aschauer, David Alan, 1985. "Fiscal Policy and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 117-27, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Lawrence J. Christiano, 1987. "Intertemporal substitution and smoothness of consumption," Working Papers 427, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  8. Hanoch, G & Levy, Haim, 1969. "The Efficiency Analysis of Choices Involving Risk," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(107), pages 335-46, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Benveniste, L M & Scheinkman, J A, 1979. "On the Differentiability of the Value Function in Dynamic Models of Economics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 727-32, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Eichenbaum, Martin S & Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1988. "A Time Series Analysis of Representative Agent Models of Consumption and Leisure Choice under Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(1), pages 51-78, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1988. "Is Theory Really Ahead of Measurement? Current Real Business Cycle Theories and Aggregate Labor Market Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Christiano, Lawrence J, 1990. "Linear-Quadratic Approximation and Value-Function Iteration: A Comparison," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(1), pages 99-113, January.
  16. Barro, Robert J, 1981. "Output Effects of Government Purchases," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1086-1121, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1990. "Current real business cycle theories and aggregate labor market fluctuations," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 24, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Robert E. Hall, 1980. "Labor Supply and Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 0385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Judd, Kenneth L, 1985. "Short-run Analysis of Fiscal Policy in a Simple Perfect Foresight Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 298-319, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Kormendi, Roger C, 1983. "Government Debt, Government Spending, and Private Sector Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 994-1010, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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