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Is Theory Really Ahead of Measurement? Current Real Business Cycle Theories and Aggregate Labor Market Fluctuations

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Lawrence J. Christiano
Martin Eichenbaum

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Abstract

In the l93Os, Dunlop and Tarshis observed that the correlation between hours and wages is close to zero. This classic observation has become a litmus test by which macroeconomic models are judged. Existing real business cycle models fail this test dramatically. Based on this result, we argue that technology shocks cannot be the sole impulse driving post-war U.S. business cycles. We modify prototypical real business cycle models by allowing government spending shocks to influence labor market dynamics in a way suggested by Aschauer (1985), Barro (1981, 1987) and Kormendi (1983), This modification can, in principle, bring the models into closer conformity with the data. While the empirical performance of the models is significantly improved, they still fail to account for the Dunlop-Tarshis observation. Accounting for that observation will require further advances in model development. Consequently, we conclude that theory is behind, not ahead of, business cycle measurement.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2700.

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Date of creation: Sep 1988
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2700

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  1. Jess Benhabib & Richard Rogerson & Randall Wright, 1991. "Homework in macroeconomics: household production and aggregate fluctuations," Staff Report 135, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Benhabib, Jess & Rogerson, Richard & Wright, Randall, 1990. "Homework In Macroeconomics Ii: Aggregate Fluctuations," Working Papers 90-18, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
  3. Thomas F. Cooley & Gary D. Hansen, 1991. "Tax distortions in a neoclassical monetary economy," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 38, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Carlos Díaz-Moreno & José E. Galdón-Sánchez, 1999. "How important is firm behavior to understand unemployment? Evidence from Spain," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 23(2), pages 203-224, May. [Downloadable!]
  5. S. Rao Aiyagari & Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1990. "The Output, Employment, and Interest Rate Effects of Government Consumption," NBER Working Papers 3330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Gary D. Hansen, 1989. "Technical Progress and Aggregate Fluctuations," UCLA Economics Working Papers 546, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Jess Benhabib & Randall Wright & Richard Rogerson, 1990. "Homework in Macoreconomics I: Basic Theory (Part I of II)," NBER Working Papers 3344, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Benhabib, Jess & Rogerson, Richard & Wright, Randall, 1990. "Homework In Macroeconomics I: Basic Theory," Working Papers 90-17, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
  9. Ellen R. McGrattan, 1991. "The macroeconomic effects of distortionary taxation," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 37, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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