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The effetcs of fiscal policy in Italy: Evidence from a VAR model

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Author Info
Raffaela Giordano () (Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations)
Sandro Momigliano () (Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations)
Stefano Neri () (Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations)
Roberto Perotti () (IGIER- Bocconi University)

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Abstract

This paper studies the effects of fiscal policy on private GDP, inflation and the long-term interest rate in Italy using a structural vector autoregression model. To this end, a database of quarterly cash data for selected fiscal variables for the period 1982:1-2004:4 is constructed, largely relying on the information contained in the Italian Treasury Quarterly Reports. The main results of the study can be summarized as follows. A shock to government purchases of goods and services has a sizeable and robust effect on economic activity: an exogenous one per cent (in terms of private GDP) shock increases private real GDP by 0.6 per cent after 3 quarters. The response goes to zero after two years, reflecting with a lag the low persistence of the shock. The effects on employment, private consumption and investment are also positive. The response of inflation is positive but small and short-lived. In contrast, public wages, which in many studies are lumped together with purchases, have no significant effect on output, while the effects on employment turn negative after two quarters. Shocks to net revenue have negligible effects on all the variables.

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File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/econo/temidi/td08/td656_08/td656/en_tema_656.pdf
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Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 656.

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Date of creation: Jan 2008
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_656_08

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Related research
Keywords: Fiscal policy; Government spending; Fiscal multipliers; VAR;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

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  1. L. Marattin & S. Salotti, 2009. "The Response of Private Consumption to Different Public Spending Categories: VAR Evidence from UK," Working Papers 670, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna. [Downloadable!]
  2. Tenhofen, Jörn & Wolff, Guntram B., 2007. "Does anticipation of government spending matter? Evidence from an expectation augmented VAR," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,14, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  3. Wolff, Guntram B. & Tenhofen, Jörn & Heppke-Falk, Kirsten H., 2006. "The macroeconomic effects of exogenous fiscal policy shocks in Germany: a disaggregated SVAR analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,41, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  4. Leif Lybecker Eskesen, 2009. "The Role for Counter-Cyclical Fiscal Policy in Singapore," IMF Working Papers 09/8, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Agustín S. Bénétrix, 2009. "Fiscal Shocks and Real Wages," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp288, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  6. Davide Furceri & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2009. "The Impact of Government Spending on the Private Sector: Crowding-out versus Crowding-in Effects"," NIPE Working Papers 6/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
  7. António Afonso & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2009. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in Portugal: a Bayesian SVAR Analysis," Working Papers 2009/09, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.. [Downloadable!]
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  8. António Afonso & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2008. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy," Working Papers 2008/56, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Kalckreuth, Ulf von & Wolff, Guntram B., 2007. "Testing for contemporary fiscal policy discretion with real time data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,24, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  10. António Afonso & Luca Agnello & Davide Furceri & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2009. "Assessing Long-Term Fiscal Developments: a New Approach," Working Papers 2009/19, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Agustin S. Benetrix, IIIS, Trinity College Dublin. Philip R. Lane, IIIS, Trinity College Dublin, 2009. "Fiscal Shocks and The Sectoral Composition of Output," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp294, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
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