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Politique budgétaire et dynamique économique en France : l'approche VAR structurel

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  • Olivier Biau
  • Élie Girard

Abstract

To measure the effectiveness of fiscal policy in France, we estimate a structural VAR inspired by Blanchard and Perotti (2002). Consistently with most large macroeconometric models, our findings show the macroeconomic effectiveness of a structural increase in public spending in the short run (multiplier close to 1.4), which ? beyond its mechanical impact on aggregate demand ? stimulatesprivateconsumptionandinvestment.Similarly, theestimatedeffectofastructuralincreaseintaxesonoutputisnegative, mainly because of a decrease in private consumption; however, this response is small (multiplierclose toonly-0.1) and significant only in the very short run, although the result depends on the specific tax examined.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Biau & Élie Girard, 2005. "Politique budgétaire et dynamique économique en France : l'approche VAR structurel," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(3), pages 1-23.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:ecoldc:ecop_169_0001
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    Cited by:

    1. Cassette, Aurélie & Creel, Jérôme & Farvaque, Etienne & Paty, Sonia, 2013. "Governments under influence: Country interactions in discretionary fiscal policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 79-89.
    2. Elva Bova & Violeta Klyviene, 2020. "Macroeconomic responses to fiscal shocks in Portugal," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 47(5), pages 1051-1069, April.
    3. van der Wielen, Wouter, 2020. "The macroeconomic effects of tax changes: Evidence using real-time data for the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 302-321.
    4. Jocelyn Boussard & Francisco de Castro & Matteo Salto, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers and Public Debt Dynamics in Consolidations," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 460, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    5. Raymond Osi Alenoghena & Samuel David Adebisi & Ayobola Olufolake Charles, 2022. "Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Variables in Africa: A Bayesian VAR Approach," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 6(12), pages 731-741, December.
    6. Wissem Khanfir, 2017. "Orientation of the Fiscal Policy in Tunisia: Structural VAR Analysis," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 20(64), pages 61-74, June.
    7. Lalik, Magdalena, 2017. "Interactions between fiscal multipliers and sovereign risk premium during fiscal consolidation: model based assessment for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2016, European Central Bank.
    8. Davide Furceri & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Does Government Spending Crowd Out Private Consumption and Investment?," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 12(4), pages 153-170, October.
    9. Jérôme Creel & Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Francesco Saraceno, 2007. "Politique budgétaire discrétionnaire en France. Les effets à court et à long terme," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 58(5), pages 1035-1053.
    10. Ana GRDOVIĆ GNIP, 2015. "Empirical Assessment Of Stabilization Effects Of Fiscal Policy In Croatia," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 47-69, March.
    11. Giordano, Raffaela & Momigliano, Sandro & Neri, Stefano & Perotti, Roberto, 2007. "The effects of fiscal policy in Italy: Evidence from a VAR model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 707-733, September.
    12. Carine Bouthevillain & John Caruana & Cristina Checherita & Jorge Cunha & Esther Gordo & Stephan Haroutunian & Geert Langenus & Amela Hubic & Bernhard Manzke & Javier J. Pérez & Pietro Tommasino, 2009. "Pros and cons of various fiscal measures to stimulate the economy," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue JUL, pages 123-144, July.
    13. Kasselaki, Maria Th. & Tagkalakis, Athanasios O., 2016. "Fiscal policy and private investment in Greece," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 53-106.
    14. Christoph A. Schaltegger & Martin Weder, 2010. "Fiskalpolitik als antizyklisches Instrument? Eine Betrachtung der Schweiz," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11(2), pages 146-177, May.
    15. Jérôme Creel & Paola Monperrus‐Veroni & Francesco Saraceno, 2009. "On The Long‐Term Effects Of Fiscal Policy In The United Kingdom: The Case For A Golden Rule," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(5), pages 580-607, November.
    16. Jérôme Creel & Eric Heyer & Mathieu Plane, 2011. "Petit précis de politique budgétaire par tous les temps," Post-Print hal-03460510, HAL.
    17. Raffaella Basile & Bruno Chiarini & Giovanni Luca & Elisabetta Marzano, 2016. "Fiscal multipliers and unreported production: evidence for Italy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 877-896, November.
    18. Berger, Johannes & Graf, Nikolaus & Strohner, Ludwig & Schuh, Ulrich, 2014. "Auswirkungen von ausgaben- und einnahmenseitigen Konsolidierungen," Research Papers 2, EcoAustria – Institute for Economic Research.
    19. Ant Afonso & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(34), pages 4439-4454, December.
    20. de Walque, Gregory & Pisani, Massimiliano & Kilponen, Juha & Thomas, Carlos & Hlédik, Tibor & Hurtado, Samuel & Hollmayr, Josef & Corbo, Vesna & Schmidt, Sebastian & Micallef, Brian & Maria, José R. &, 2015. "Comparing fiscal multipliers across models and countries in Europe," Working Paper Series 1760, European Central Bank.
    21. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3244 is not listed on IDEAS

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