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EMU and the adjustment to asymmetric shocks: the case of Italy

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Abstract

In this paper we address the question on whether EMU has amplified or dampened intra euro area divergencies, by looking at a time-varying VAR model of Italy’s relative performance compared with the rest of the euro area, spanning from 1976 to 2009. Our main result is that EMU does not appear to have materially changed the transmission mechanism of idiosyncratic demand and cost push shocks, but has removed an importance source of relative performance variability given by idiosyncratic monetary shocks. The net effect of EMU, therefore, has been to reduce the relative performance variability. The conclusions that we reach could be usefully tested on other countries. JEL Classification: E31, E32, E42.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1128.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20091128

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Keywords: EMU; relative economic performance; shocks; adjustment; Italy.;

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  1. Enders, Zeno & Jung, Philip & Müller, Gernot, 2012. "Has the Euro changed the Business Cycle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9233, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  13. Söderström, Ulf, 2008. "Re-Evaluating Swedish Membership in EMU: Evidence from an Estimated Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 7062, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Business Cycles in the Euro Area," NBER Chapters, in: Europe and the Euro, pages 141-167 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Buiter, Willem H, 2000. "Optimal Currency Areas: Why Does The Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2366, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sorensen, Bent E & Yosha, Oved, 2004. "Asymmetric Shocks and Risk Sharing in a Monetary Union: Updated Evidence and Policy Implications for Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 4463, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Farrant, Katie & Peersman, Gert, 2006. "Is the Exchange Rate a Shock Absorber or a Source of Shocks? New Empirical Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 939-961, June.
  18. Renee Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2007. "Some Issues in Using Sign Restrictions for Identifying Structural VARs," NCER Working Paper Series 14, National Centre for Econometric Research.
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