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Has the Euro changed the Business Cycle?

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  • Enders, Zeno
  • Jung, Philip
  • Müller, Gernot

Abstract

In contrast to the notion that the exchange-rate regime is non-neutral, there is little evidence that EMU has systematically changed the European business cycle. In fact, we find the volatility of macroeconomic variables largely unchanged before and after the introduction of the euro. Exceptions are a strong decline in real exchange rate volatility and a considerable increase in cross-country correlations. To account for this finding, we develop a two-country business cycle model which is able to replicate key features of European data. In particular, the model correctly predicts a limited effect of EMU on standard business cycles statistics. However, further analysis reveals that the euro has changed the nature of the cycle through its impact on the transmission mechanism. Cross-country spillovers have become relatively more, domestic shocks relatively less important in accounting for economic fluctuations under EMU. This explains why there is little change in unconditional volatilities.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 9233.

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Date of creation: Nov 2012
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9233

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Related research

Keywords: cross-country spillovers; EMU; euro; European business cycles; exchange rate regime; monetary policy; optimum currency area;

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Cited by:
  1. Matthieu Bussiere & Alexander Chudik & Arnaud Mehl, 2011. "How have global shocks impacted the real effective exchange rates of individual Euro area countries since the Euro's creation?," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 102, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  2. Sybille Lehwald, 2012. "Has the Euro Changed Business Cycle Synchronization?Evidence from the Core and the Periphery," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 122, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  3. Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot & Scholl, Almuth, 2010. "How do Fiscal and Technology Shocks affect Real Exchange Rates? New Evidence for the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 7732, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. J James Reade & Ulrich Volz, 2010. "Too Much to Lose, or More to Gain? Should Sweden Join the Euro?," Discussion Papers 10-13, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  5. Jarko Fidrmuc & Mariya Hake & Helmut Stix, 2011. "Households’ Foreign Currency Borrowing in Central and Eastern Europe," Working Papers 171, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  6. Gianni Amisano & Nicola Giammarioli & Livio Stracca, 2009. "EMU and the adjustment to asymmetric shocks: the case of Italy," Working Paper Series 1128, European Central Bank.

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