Has the Euro changed the Business Cycle?
Abstract
In contrast to the notion that the exchange-rate regime is non-neutral, there is little evidence that EMU has systematically changed the European business cycle. In fact, we find the volatility of macroeconomic variables largely unchanged before and after the introduction of the euro. Exceptions are a strong decline in real exchange rate volatility and a considerable increase in cross-country correlations. To account for this finding, we develop a two-country business cycle model which is able to replicate key features of European data. In particular, the model correctly predicts a limited effect of EMU on standard business cycles statistics. However, further analysis reveals that the euro has changed the nature of the cycle through its impact on the transmission mechanism. Cross-country spillovers have become relatively more, domestic shocks relatively less important in accounting for economic fluctuations under EMU. This explains why there is little change in unconditional volatilities.Download Info
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Bibliographic Info
Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 9233.Length:
Date of creation: Nov 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9233
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Related research
Keywords: cross-country spillovers; EMU; euro; European business cycles; exchange rate regime; monetary policy; optimum currency area;Other versions of this item:
- Zeno Enders & Philip Jung & Gernot J. Müller, 2010. "Has the Euro changed the Business Cycle?," Working Papers 162, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
- F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-12-22 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2012-12-22 (European Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2012-12-22 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2012-12-22 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-OPM-2012-12-22 (Open Economy Macroeconomic)
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Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Matthieu Bussiere & Alexander Chudik & Arnaud Mehl, 2011.
"How have global shocks impacted the real effective exchange rates of individual Euro area countries since the Euro's creation?,"
Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper
102, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Bussière, M. & Chudik, A. & Mehl, A., 2011. "How have global shocks impacted the real effective exchange rates of individual euro area countries since the euro's creation?," Working papers 336, Banque de France.
- Sybille Lehwald, 2012. "Has the Euro Changed Business Cycle Synchronization?Evidence from the Core and the Periphery," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 122, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
- Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot & Scholl, Almuth, 2010.
"How do Fiscal and Technology Shocks affect Real Exchange Rates? New Evidence for the United States,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7732, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J. & Scholl, Almuth, 2011. "How do fiscal and technology shocks affect real exchange rates?: New evidence for the United States," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 53-69, January.
- J James Reade & Ulrich Volz, 2010.
"Too Much to Lose, or More to Gain? Should Sweden Join the Euro?,"
Discussion Papers
10-13, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
- J. James Reade & Ulrich Volz, 2009. "Too Much to Lose, or More to Gain? Should Sweden Join the Euro?," Economics Series Working Papers 442, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Jarko Fidrmuc & Mariya Hake & Helmut Stix, 2011. "Households’ Foreign Currency Borrowing in Central and Eastern Europe," Working Papers 171, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- Gianni Amisano & Nicola Giammarioli & Livio Stracca, 2009. "EMU and the adjustment to asymmetric shocks: the case of Italy," Working Paper Series 1128, European Central Bank.
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