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Has the Euro changed the Business Cycle?

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  • Zeno Enders

    ()
    (University of Bonn)

  • Gernot J. Müller

    ()
    (University of Bonn)

Abstract

In this paper we analyze European business cycles before and under EMU. Across the two periods we find 1) a significant decline in real exchange rate volatility, 2) significant changes in cross-country correlations, and 3) the volatility of macroeconomic fundamentals largely unchanged. We develop a two-country business cycle model and show that the calibrated model is able to replicate key features of the data prior to and under EMU.We find that the euro has a strong bearing on the transmission mechanism as cross-country spillovers increase substantially under EMU. As a result, foreign shocks become more and domestic shocks less important in accounting for the (unchanged) volatility of macroeconomic fundamentals.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its series Working Papers with number 162.

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Length: 49
Date of creation: 31 May 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:162

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Keywords: European business cycles; Euro; Optimum Currency Area; EMU; Monetary Policy; Exchange rate regime; Cross-country spillovers;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Bussière, M. & Chudik, A. & Mehl, A., 2011. "How have global shocks impacted the real effective exchange rates of individual euro area countries since the euro's creation?," Working papers 336, Banque de France.
  2. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Hake, Mariya & Stix, Helmut, 2013. "Households’ foreign currency borrowing in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1880-1897.
  3. J James Reade & Ulrich Volz, 2010. "Too Much to Lose, or More to Gain? Should Sweden Join the Euro?," Discussion Papers 10-13, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  4. Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot & Scholl, Almuth, 2010. "How do Fiscal and Technology Shocks affect Real Exchange Rates? New Evidence for the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 7732, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Petr Rozmahel & Ladislava Grochová & Marek Litzman, 2014. "The effect of asymmetries in fiscal policy conducts on business cycle correlation in the EU," WWWforEurope Working Papers series 62, WWWforEurope.
  6. Amisano, Gianni & Giammarioli, Nicola & Stracca, Livio, 2009. "EMU and the adjustment to asymmetric shocks: the case of Italy," Working Paper Series 1128, European Central Bank.
  7. Stefan Niemann & Paul Pichler, 2013. "Collateral, Liquidity and Debt Sustainability," Working Papers 187, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  8. Bertinelli, Luisito & Cardi, Olivier & Sen, Partha, 2013. "Deregulation shock in product market and unemployment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 711-734.
  9. Eugenia Vella & Evangelos V. Dioikitopoulos & Sarantis Kalyvitis, 2012. "Green Spending Reforms, Growth and Welfare with Endogenous Subjective Discounting," DEGIT Conference Papers c017_045, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  10. Sybille Lehwald, 2012. "Has the Euro Changed Business Cycle Synchronization?Evidence from the Core and the Periphery," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 122, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.

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