Has the Euro changed the Business Cycle?
AbstractIn this paper we analyze European business cycles before and under EMU. Across the two periods we find 1) a significant decline in real exchange rate volatility, 2) significant changes in cross-country correlations, and 3) the volatility of macroeconomic fundamentals largely unchanged. We develop a two-country business cycle model and show that the calibrated model is able to replicate key features of the data prior to and under EMU.We find that the euro has a strong bearing on the transmission mechanism as cross-country spillovers increase substantially under EMU. As a result, foreign shocks become more and domestic shocks less important in accounting for the (unchanged) volatility of macroeconomic fundamentals. JEL classification: F41, F42, E32
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its series Working Papers with number 162.
Date of creation: 31 May 2010
Date of revision:
Postal: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Studies Division, c/o Beate Hofbauer-Berlakovich, POB 61, A-1011 Vienna, Austria
Other versions of this item:
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
- F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-06-18 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-06-18 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2010-06-18 (European Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2010-06-18 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2010-06-18 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-OPM-2010-06-18 (Open Economy Macroeconomic)
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