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The third round of euro area enlargement: Are the candidates ready?

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  • Deskar-Škrbić, Milan
  • Kotarac, Karlo
  • Kunovac, Davor

Abstract

In this paper, we study the readiness of Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania to adopt the common monetary policy of the ECB in the context of the third round of euro area enlargement. Following the optimal currency area (OCA) theory literature, we focus on the coherence of economic shocks between candidate countries on the one hand and the euro area on the other and analyse the relevance of euro area shocks for key macroeconomic variables in these countries. Our results, based on a novel empirical approach, show that the overall importance of those shocks that are relevant for the ECB is fairly similar in candidate countries and the euro area. The cost of joining the euro area should, therefore, not be pronounced, at least from the aspect of the adoption of the common counter-cyclical monetary policy. This conclusion holds for all three candidates, despite important differences in their monetary and exchange rate regimes.

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  • Deskar-Škrbić, Milan & Kotarac, Karlo & Kunovac, Davor, 2020. "The third round of euro area enlargement: Are the candidates ready?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:107:y:2020:i:c:s0261560620301613
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102205
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euro area enlargement; Economic shocks; BVAR; Common monetary policy; Mundellian trilemma;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions

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