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Fiscal policy and growth: do financial crises make a difference?

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  • Grüner, Hans Peter
  • Afonso, António
  • Kolerus, Christina

Abstract

In this paper we assess to what extent in the existence of a financial crisis, government spending can contribute to mitigate economic downturns in the short run and whether such impact differs in crisis and non crisis times. We use panel analysis for a set of OECD and non-OECD countries for the period 1981-2007. The fiscal multiplier for the full sample for instrumented regular and crisis spending is about 0.6-0.8 considering the sample average government spending share of GDP of about one third. Altogether, we cannot reject the hypothesis that crisis spending and regular spending have the same impact using a variation of controls, sub-samples and specifications. JEL Classification: C23, E62, E44, F43, H50

Suggested Citation

  • Grüner, Hans Peter & Afonso, António & Kolerus, Christina, 2010. "Fiscal policy and growth: do financial crises make a difference?," Working Paper Series 1217, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101217
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    Cited by:

    1. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Mehmet Ugur & Siew Ling Yew, 2017. "Does Government Size Affect Per-Capita Income Growth? A Hierarchical Meta-Regression Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(300), pages 142-171, March.
    2. Bruno Martorano, 2015. "Lessons from the recent economic crisis: the Australian household stimulus package," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 309-327, May.
    3. Hans-Werner Sinn & Niklas Potrafke, 2012. "Zur Debatte »Sparen oder Wachstum«," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(10), pages 07-08, May.
    4. Mr. Emanuele Baldacci & Mr. Sanjeev Gupta & Mr. Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2013. "Debt Reduction, Fiscal Adjustment, and Growth in Credit-Constrained Economies," IMF Working Papers 2013/238, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Bruno Martorano, 2013. "The Australian Household Stimulus Package: Lessons from the recent economic crisis," Papers inwopa697, Innocenti Working Papers.
    6. António Afonso & Jaromír Baxa & Michal Slavík, 2018. "Fiscal developments and financial stress: a threshold VAR analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 395-423, March.
    7. Tobias Cwik & Volker Wieland, 2011. "Keynesian government spending multipliers and spillovers in the euro area [Fiscal policy and growth: do financial crises make a difference?]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 26(67), pages 493-549.
    8. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar, 2013. "Growth and productivity: The role of government debt," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 384-407.
    9. Constantinos Alexiou & Joseph G. Nellis, 2017. "Cyclical Multiplier and Zero Low Bound Effects of Government Expenditure on Economic Growth: Evidence for Greece," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(2), pages 119-133, June.
    10. Sebastian Gechert, 2015. "What fiscal policy is most effective? A meta-regression analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 553-580.
    11. Sebastian Gechert & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2014. "Are Fiscal Multipliers Regime-Dependent? A Meta Regression Analysis," IMK Working Paper 139-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    12. Rajmund MIRDALA, 2016. "Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks in the Euro Area Lessons Learned from Fiscal Consolidation," Journal of Advanced Research in Law and Economics, ASERS Publishing, vol. 7(8), pages 2236-2276.
    13. Engelbert Stockhammer & Walid Qazizada & Sebastian Gechert, 2019. "Demand effects of fiscal policy since 2008," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 7(1), pages 57-74, January.
    14. Sebastian Gechert, 2017. "On theories and estimation techniques of fiscal multipliers," FMM Working Paper 11-2017, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    15. W. Qazizada & E. Stockhammer, 2015. "Government spending multipliers in contraction and expansion," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 238-258, March.
    16. Aeggarchat Sirisankanan, 2014. "Rethinking Thailand¡¯S Growth Policies," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 39(2), pages 51-73, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    EU; financial crisis; fiscal policy; growth; oecd; panel analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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