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Fiscal policy and growth: do financial crises make a difference?

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  • Afonso, António
  • Grüner, Hans Peter
  • Kolerus, Christina

Abstract

In this paper we assess to what extent in the existence of a financial crisis, government spending can contribute to mitigate economic downturns in the short run and whether such impact differs in crisis and non crisis times. We use panel analysis for a set of OECD and non-OECD countries for the period 1981-2007. The fiscal multiplier for the full sample for instrumented regular and crisis spending is about 0.6-0.8 considering the sample average government spending share of GDP of about one third. Altogether, we cannot reject the hypothesis that crisis spending and regular spending have the same impact using a variation of controls, sub-samples and specifications. JEL Classification: C23, E62, E44, F43, H50

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1217.

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Date of creation: Jun 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101217

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Keywords: EU; financial crisis; Fiscal Policy; Growth; oecd; panel analysis;

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References

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  1. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Jacopo Cimadomo, 2006. "Changing Patterns of Domestic and Cross-Border Fiscal Policy Multipliers in Europe and the US," Working Papers 2006-24, CEPII research center.
  2. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Vegh, 2004. "When it Rains, it Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Working Papers 10780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Röger, Werner & Székely, Istvan & Turrini, Alessandro Antonio, 2010. "Banking crises, Output Loss and Fiscal Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 7815, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. de Arcangelis, Giuseppe & Lamartina, Serena, 2003. "Identifying fiscal shocks and policy regimes in OECD countries," Working Paper Series 0281, European Central Bank.
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Cited by:
  1. Tobias Cwik & Volker Wieland, 2011. "Keynesian government spending multipliers and spillovers in the euro area," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 26(67), pages 493-549, 07.
  2. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2011. "Growth and Productivity: the role of Government Debt," Working Papers Department of Economics 2011/13, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  3. Emanuele Baldacci & Sanjeev Gupta & Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2013. "Debt Reduction, Fiscal Adjustment, and Growth in Credit-Constrained Economies," IMF Working Papers 13/238, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Sebastian Gechert, 2013. "What fiscal policy is most effective? A Meta Regression Analysis," IMK Working Paper 117-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  5. Bruno Martorano & UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre, 2013. "The Australian Household Stimulus Package: Lessons from the recent economic crisis," Innocenti Working Papers inwopa697, UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre.
  6. Hans-Werner Sinn & Niklas Potrafke, 2012. "Zur Debatte »Sparen oder Wachstum«," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(10), pages 07-08, 05.

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