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Changing Patterns of Domestic and Cross-Border Fiscal Policy Multipliers in Europe and the US

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  • Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
  • Jacopo Cimadomo

Abstract

This paper documents time variation in domestic fiscal policy multipliers in Germany, the UK and the US, and in cross-border fiscal spillovers from Germany to the seven largest European Union economies. We propose two VAR models which incorporate three “global factors” representing developments in the world economy, and we combine them with identification of fiscal shocks à la Blanchard and Perotti (2002) and Perotti (2005), to study the effects of net tax and government spending shocks on GDP, inflation and interest rates. By recursively estimating these models on different samples of data, we find that the domestic impact of tax shocks has been positive but vanishing for Germany and the US, stably not significant for the UK. Financial markets deregulations may play an important role in that since they allow households to be less dependent on disposable income and to smooth more easily consumption. Domestic government spending multipliers are found to be positive but feeble in the short-run and close to zero or slightly negative in the medium-run, implying that private consumption and investments might be crowded out. These results suggest that, in the European Monetary Union, discretionary fiscal policy “surprises” (i.e. unexpected tax cuts and government spending expansions) cannot be used by governments as substitutes for lost national monetary instruments, since they have shown to be progressively ineffective over time. Finally, we find that fiscal expansions in Germany have had beneficial (though declining) effects for neighboring countries, especially the smaller ones. This may indicate that the trade channel of transmission of fiscal policy dominates the interest rate one.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2006-24.

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Date of creation: Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2006-24

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Keywords: Fiscal policy effectiveness; fiscal shocks; spillovers; factor-augmented VAR; Great Moderation;

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References

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  1. Paul van den Noord, 2000. "The Size and Role of Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers in the 1990s and Beyond," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 230, OECD Publishing.
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Cited by:
  1. Francisco de Castro & Daniel Garrote, 2012. "The effects of fiscal shocks on the exchange rate in the EMU and differences with the US," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1224, Banco de Espa�a.
  2. Pablo Burriel & Francisco de Castro Fernández & Daniel Garrote & Esther Gordo & Joan Paredes & Javier J. Pérez García, 2010. "Fiscal Multipliers in the Euro Area," Revista de Economía y Estadística, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto de Economía y Finanzas, vol. 0(2), pages 7–27, July.
  3. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Growth Spillover Dynamics From Crisis to Recovery," IMF Working Papers 11/218, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Sebastian Gechert, 2013. "What fiscal policy is most effective? A Meta Regression Analysis," IMK Working Paper 117-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  5. J. Stephen Ferris, 2010. "Fiscal Policy from a Public Choice Perspective," Carleton Economic Papers 10-10, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
  6. António Afonso & Hans Peter Grüner & Christina Kolerus, 2010. "Fiscal Policy and Growth: Do Financial Crises make a Difference?," Working Papers Department of Economics 2010/10, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  7. Francisco de Castro & Laura Fernández-Caballero, 2011. "The effects of fiscal shocks on the exchange rate in Spain," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1121, Banco de Espa�a.
  8. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Output Spillovers from Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 18578, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Pablo Burriel & Francisco de Castro & Daniel Garrote & Esther Gordo & Joan Paredes & Javier J. Pérez, 2009. "Fiscal policy shocks in the euro area and the US: an empirical assessment," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0930, Banco de Espa�a.
  10. James Feyrer & Jay Shambaugh, 2012. "Global Savings and Global Investment: The Transmission of Identified Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 95-114, May.
  11. Markus Kirchner & Jacopo Cimadomo & Sebastian Hauptmeier, 2010. "Transmission of Government Spending Shocks in the Euro Area: Time Variation and Driving Forces," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-021/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  12. Dufrénot G. & Paul L., 2010. "Fiscal developments in the euro area beyond the crisis: some lessons drawn from fiscal reaction functions," Working papers 292, Banque de France.
  13. Laganà, Gianluca & Sgro, Pasquale Michael, 2011. "A factor-augmented VAR approach: The effect of a rise in the US personal income tax rate on the US and Canada," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1163-1169, May.
  14. Sebastian Weber & Anna Ivanova, 2011. "Do Fiscal Spillovers Matter?," IMF Working Papers 11/211, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Sebastian Gechert & Henner Will, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers: A Meta Regression Analysis," IMK Working Paper 97-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

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