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Growth and Productivity: the role of Government Debt

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  • António Afonso
  • João Tovar Jalles

Abstract

We use a panel of 155 countries to assess the links between growth, productivity and government debt. Via growth equations we assess simultaneity, endogeneity, cross-section dependence, nonlinearities, and threshold effects. We find a negative effect of the debt ratio. For the OECD, the higher the debt maturity the higher economic growth; financial crisis are detrimental for growth; fiscal consolidation promotes growth; and higher debt ratios are beneficial to TFP growth. The growth impact of a 10% increase in the debt ratio is -0.2% (0.1%) respectively for countries with debt ratios above (below) 90% (30%), and an endogenous debt ratio threshold of 59% can be derived.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon in its series Working Papers Department of Economics with number 2011/13.

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Date of creation: Jul 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp132011

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Postal: Department of Economics, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, University of Lisbon, Rua do Quelhas 6, 1200-781 LISBON, PORTUGAL
Web page: https://aquila1.iseg.ulisboa.pt/aquila/departamentos/EC

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Keywords: government debt; crises; panel analysis. Classification-C23; E62; H50.;

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  1. de la Fuente, Angel, 1997. "Fiscal Policy and Growth in the OECD," CEPR Discussion Papers 1755, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  17. George Psacharopoulos, 2004. "Economies of education: from theory to practice," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 47(3-4), pages 341-358.
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Cited by:
  1. Laura Jaramillo & Anke Weber, 2012. "Bond Yields in Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 12/198, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Ugo Panizza & Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2013. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in Advanced Economies: A Survey," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 78, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
  3. Markus Eberhardt & Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2013. "This Time They're Different: Heterogeneity;and Nonlinearity in the Relationship;between Debt and Growth," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 92, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
  4. António Afonso, 2013. "Anatomy of a fiscal débacle: the case of Portugal," Working Papers Department of Economics 2013/01, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  5. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2011. "Linking Investment and Fiscal Policies," Working Papers Department of Economics 2011/16, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  6. Jaramillo, Laura & Weber, Anke, 2013. "Bond yields in emerging economies: It matters what state you are in," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 169-185.
  7. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2012. "The Fiscal-Growth Nexus," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/01, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  8. Simone Salotti & Carmine Trecroci, 2012. "Even Worse than You thought: The Impact of Public Debt on Aggregate Investment and Productivity," DEGIT Conference Papers c017_020, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.

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