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Debt and Economic Growth in Developing and Industrial Countries

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  • Schclarek, Alfredo

    (Department of Economics, Lund University)

Abstract

This paper empirically explores the relationship between debt and growth for a number of developing and industrial economies. For developing countries, we find that lower total external debt levels are associated with higher growth rates, and that this negative relationship is driven by the incidence of public external debt, and not by private external debt. Regarding the channels through which debt accumulation affects growth, we find that this is mainly driven by the capital accumulation growth. There is only limited evidence on the relationship between external debt and total factor productivity growth. In addition, for private savings rates there are mixed results. We do not find any support for an inverted-U shape relationship between external debt and growth. For industrial countries, we do not find any significant relationship between gross government debt and economic growth.

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File URL: http://project.nek.lu.se/publications/workpap/Papers/WP05_34.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Lund University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2005:34.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: 04 Dec 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2005_034

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Postal: Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management, Lund University, Box 7082, S-220 07 Lund,Sweden
Phone: +46 +46 222 0000
Fax: +46 +46 2224613
Web page: http://www.nek.lu.se/en
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Related research

Keywords: External Debt; Public debt; Economic Growth; Capital Accumulation; Productivity Growth; Private Savings;

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References

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  1. Johnson, Paul & Durlauf, Steven N & Temple, Johnathan R. W., 2004. "Growth Econometrics," Vassar College Department of Economics Working Paper Series 61, Vassar College Department of Economics.
    • Durlauf, Steven N. & Johnson, Paul A. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2005. "Growth Econometrics," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 555-677 Elsevier.
  2. Thorsten Beck & Ross Levine & Norman Loayza, 1999. "Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile 56, Central Bank of Chile.
  3. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman, 1999. "Finance and the sources of growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2057, The World Bank.
  4. R Blundell & Steven Bond, . "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data model," Economics Papers W14&104., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  5. Steve Bond, 2002. "Dynamic panel data models: a guide to microdata methods and practice," CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies CWP09/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  6. Cohen, Daniel, 1997. "Growth and external debt: a new perspective on the african and latin american tragedies," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9715, CEPREMAP.
  7. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May.
  8. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross & DEC, 1994. "Capital fundamentalism, economic development, and economic growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1285, The World Bank.
  9. Hélène Poirson & Luca Antonio Ricci & Catherine A. Pattillo, 2004. "What Are the Channels Through Which External Debt Affects Growth?," IMF Working Papers 04/15, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Frank Windmeijer, 2000. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear two-step GMM estimators," IFS Working Papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies W00/19, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  11. Hélène Poirson & Luca Antonio Ricci & Catherine A. Pattillo, 2002. "External Debt and Growth," IMF Working Papers 02/69, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mayowa Gabriel AJAO & Aigbedo Omorose OGIEMUDIA, 2013. "Foreign Debt Management and the Development of Nigeria Economy," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 3, pages 99-109, February.
  2. Jernej Mencinger & Aleksander Aristovnik & Miroslav Verbic, 2014. "The Impact of Growing Public Debt on Economic Growth in the European Union," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 16(35), pages 403, February.
  3. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2012. "The impact of high government debt on economic growth and its channels: An empirical investigation for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 1392-1405.
  4. Baum, Anja & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2013. "Debt and growth: New evidence for the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 809-821.
  5. Cândida Ferreira, 2014. "Debt and economic growth in the European Union: what causes what?," Working Papers Department of Economics, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon 2014/08, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  6. António Afonso & Sebastian Hauptmeier, 2009. "Public Debt and Economic Growth: a Granger Causality Panel Data Approach," Working Papers Department of Economics, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon 2009/24, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  7. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2010. "The impact of high and growing government debt on economic growth: an empirical investigation for the euro area," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 1237, European Central Bank.
  8. Rao, B. Bhaskara & Sharma, K.L. & Singh, Rup & Lata, Nalini, 2007. "A Survey of Growth and Development Issues of the Pacific Islands," Working Paper Series, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  9. Adeniji, Sesan, 2013. "The Upshot of External Debt on Economic Growth in West African Countries: A Panel Data Approach," MPRA Paper 52555, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Siti Daud & Jan Podivinsky, 2011. "Debt–Growth Nexus: A Spatial Econometrics Approach for Developing Countries," Transition Studies Review, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 1-15, September.

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