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Productivity growth and the exchange rate regime: The role of financial development

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Author Info

  • Philippe Aghion
  • Philippe Bacchetta
  • Romain Rancière
  • Kenneth Rogoff

Abstract

This paper offers empirical evidence that a country's choice of exchange rate regime can have a signifficant impact on its medium-term rate of productivity growth. Moreover, the impact depends critically on the country's level of financial development, its degree of market regulation, and its distance from the global technology frontier. We illustrate how each of these channels may operate in a simple stylized growth model in which real exchange rate uncertainty exacerbates the negative investment e¤ects of domestic credit market constraints. The empirical analysis is based on an 83 country data set spanning the years 1960-2000. Our approach delivers results that are in striking contrast to the vast existing empirical exchange rate literature, which largely finds the effects of exchange rate volatility on real activity to be relatively small and insignificant.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra in its series Economics Working Papers with number 850.

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Date of creation: May 2005
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Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:850

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Web page: http://www.econ.upf.edu/

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Keywords: Productivity growth; exchange rate;

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References

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  1. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt & David Mayer-Foulkes, 2004. "The Effect of Financial Development on Convergence: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 10358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
  3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Abhijit Banerjee, 2001. "A Corporate Balance-Sheet Approach to Currency Crises," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 01.14, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Julian di Giovanni & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2007. "The Impact of Foreign Interest Rates on the Economy: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 13467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Arratibel, Olga & Furceri, Davide & Martin, Reiner, 2008. "Real convergence in Central and Eastern European EU Member States: which role for exchange rate volatility?," Working Paper Series 0929, European Central Bank.
  3. Gunther Schnabl, 2007. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Growth in Emerging Europe and East Asia," CESifo Working Paper Series 2023, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Julian di Giovanni & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2006. "The Impact of Foreign Interest Rateson the Economy," IMF Working Papers 06/37, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Philippe Aghion & George-Marios Angeletos & Abhijit Banerjee & Kalina Manova, 2005. "Volatility and Growth: Credit Constraints and Productivity-Enhancing Investment," NBER Working Papers 11349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Laura Alfaro & Areendam Chanda & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Selin Sayek, 2006. "How Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Economic Growth? Exploring the Effects of Financial Markets on Linkages," DEGIT Conference Papers c011_023, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  7. Schnabl, Gunther & Hoffmann, Andreas, 2010. "The theory of optimum currency areas and growth in emerging markets," Working Papers 84, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
  8. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "Exchange Rate Regimes in the 2000s: A Latin American Perspective," Business School Working Papers exchangerate, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  9. Morar Triandafil, Cristina & Brezeanu, Petre & Huidumac, Catalin & Morar Triandafil, Adrian, 2011. "The Drivers of the CEE Exchange Rate Volatility - Empirical Perspective in the context of the Recent Financial Crisis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 212-229, March.
  10. Schnabl, Gunther, 2007. "Exchange rate volatility and growth in small open economies at the EMU periphery," Working Paper Series 0773, European Central Bank.
  11. Petreski, Marjan, 2009. "Analysis of exchange-rate regime effect on growth: theoretical channels and empirical evidence with panel data," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-49, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  12. Petreski, Marjan, 2009. "Exchange-rate regime and economic growth: a review of the theoretical and empirical literature," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-31, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

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