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¿Son Buenas las Crisis para el Crecimiento a Largo Plazo? El Papel de las Instituciones Políticas

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Author Info
Eduardo A. Cavallo ()
Alberto Cavallo

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Abstract

Este artículo ofrece evidencia empírica de la importancia que tienen las instituciones en determinar el resultado de las crisis sobre el crecimiento a largo plazo. Una vez que se explican los efectos no observados específicos del país y otras fuentes de endogeneidad, las instituciones políticas afectan el crecimiento mediante su interacción con las crisis. Los resultados sugieren que sólo los países con una democracia sólida, altos niveles de competencia política yrestricciones externassobre elgobierno pueden potencialmente beneficiarse con las crisis y utilizarlas como una oportunidad para mejorarsu producción per capita a largo plazo y el crecimiento productivo.

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Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series RES Working Papers with number 4590.

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Date of creation: Sep 2008
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4590

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  2. Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1994. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2005. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," IMF Working Papers 05/147, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Michael D. Bordo & Christopher M. Meissner, 2007. "Foreign Capital and Economic Growth in the First Era of Globalization," NBER Working Papers 13577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Rodrik, Dani, 1999. " Where Did All the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 385-412, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Christopher F Baum & Mark E. Schaffer & Steven Stillman, 2002. "Instrumental variables and GMM: Estimation and testing," United Kingdom Stata Users' Group Meetings 2003 02, Stata Users Group. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1998. "Financial Dependence and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 559-86, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman & Beck, Thorsten, 2000. "Financial intermediation and growth: Causality and causes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 31-77, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Paolo Manasse & Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/221, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  16. W. J. Henisz, 2000. "The Institutional Environment for Economic Growth," Economics and Politics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(1), pages 1-31, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1997. "Sharp Reductions in Current Account Deficits: An Empirical Analyis," NBER Working Papers 6310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Michael D. Bordo, 2007. "Growing Up to Financial Stability," NBER Working Papers 12993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2005. "Contractionary Currency Crashes In Developing Countries," Working Paper Series rwp05-017, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James & Thaicharoen, Yunyong, 2003. "Institutional causes, macroeconomic symptoms: volatility, crises and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 49-123, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Steve Bond, 2002. "Dynamic panel data models: a guide to microdata methods and practice," CeMMAP working papers CWP09/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
  22. David Roodman, 2006. "How to Do xtabond2," North American Stata Users' Group Meetings 2006 8, Stata Users Group. [Downloadable!]
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