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Exchange-rate regime and economic growth: a review of the theoretical and empirical literature

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  • Petreski, Marjan

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to examine the theoretical and empirical arguments for the relationship between the exchange-rate regime and economic growth. As a nominal variable, the exchange rate (regime) might not affect the long-run economic growth. However, there is no unambiguous theoretical evidence what impacts the exchange-rate target exhibits on growth. The channel through which the regime might influence growth is trade, investment and productivity. Theoretical considerations relate the exchange-rate effect on growth to the level of uncertainty imposed by flexible option of the rate. However, while reduced policy uncertainty under a peg promotes an environment which is conductive to production factor growth, trade and hence to output, such targets do not provide an adjustment mechanism in times of shocks, thus stimulating protectionist behaviour, price distortion signals and therefore misallocation of resources in the economy. Consequently, the relationship remains blurred and requires in-depth empirical investigation. The empirical research offers divergent result though. A big part of the studies focuses on the parameter of the exchange-rate dummy, but does not appropriately control for other country-characteristics nor apply appropriate growth framework. Also, the issue of endogeneity is not treated at all or inappropriate instruments are repeatedly used. Very few studies disgracedly pay small attention to the capital controls, an issue closely related to the exchange-rate regime and only one study puts the issue in the context of monetary regimes. Overall, the empirical evidence is condemned because of growth-framework, endogeneity, sample-selection bias and the so-called peso problem. An empirical investigation which will consider all those aspects might reveal clear and robust suggestion of the relationship between exchange-rate regime and growth. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Economics Discussion Papers with number 2009-31.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:200931

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Keywords: Exchange rate regime; economic grow;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Oyinbo, O. & Rekwot, G. Z., 2014. "Econometric Analysis of the Nexus of Exchange Rate Deregulation and Agricultural Share of Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 6(1), March.
  2. Petreski, Marjan, 2014. "Grooming Classifications: Exchange Rate Regimes and Growth in Transition Economies," MPRA Paper 54473, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "The Relationship Between the Foreign Exchange Regime and Macroeconomic Performance in Eastern Africa," IMF Working Papers 12/148, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Petreski, Marjan, 2009. "Analysis of exchange-rate regime effect on growth: theoretical channels and empirical evidence with panel data," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-49, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  5. Manuk Ghazanchyan & Janet Gale Stotsky, 2013. "Drivers of Growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 13/236, International Monetary Fund.

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