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Exchange Rate Volatility and Growth in Emerging Europe and East Asia

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  • Gunther Schnabl

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Abstract

The paper investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on growth in Emerging Europe and East Asia. Exchange stability has been argued to affect growth negatively as it deprives countries from the ability to react in a flexible way to asymmetric real shocks and may enhance the probability of speculative capital inflows and overheating. In contrast, exchange rate stability can be argued to affect growth in emerging market economies positively because transaction costs for international trade decline, uncertainty for international capital flows is less and macroeconomic stability is enhanced. Cross country panel estimations provide evidence for a negative impact of exchange rate volatility on growth both in Emerging Europe and East Asia.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11079-008-9084-6
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

Volume (Year): 20 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (September)
Pages: 565-587

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Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:20:y:2009:i:4:p:565-587

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100323

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Keywords: Exchange rate volatility; Growth; Emerging Europe; East Asia; F31;

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References

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  1. Romain Ranciere & Philippe Bacchetta & Philippe Aghion & Kenneth Rogoff, 2005. "Productivity Growth and the Exchange Rate Regime: The Role of Financial Development," Working Papers 214, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  2. Paul De Grauwe & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Stability in Central and Eastern Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 1182, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Sebastian Edwards & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2003. "Flexible Exchange Rates as Shock Absorbers," NBER Working Papers 9867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia. Mitigating Conflicted Virtue," International Finance 0406007, EconWPA, revised 07 Jul 2004.
  5. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility," NBER Working Papers 7418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2004. "The revived Bretton Woods system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 307-313.
  7. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  8. Kamps, Annette, 2006. "The euro as invoicing currency in international trade," Working Paper Series 0665, European Central Bank.
  9. Schnabl, Gunther, 2008. "Exchange rate volatility and growth in small open economies at the EMU periphery," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 70-91, March.
  10. Romaine Ranciere & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2003. "Crises and Growth: A Re-Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 10073, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002. "Fear of floating," MPRA Paper 14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
  13. Jeffrey Frankel & Andrew Rose, 2002. "An Estimate Of The Effect Of Common Currencies On Trade And Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 437-466, May.
  14. Peter Backé & Balázs Égert & Zoltan Walko, 2007. "Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe Revisited," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 69-77.
  15. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto Stein & Guillermo OrdoÒez, 2003. "The currency union effect on trade: early evidence from EMU," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 315-356, October.
  16. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003. "The East Asian Dollar Standard, Fear of Floating, and Original Sin," Working Papers 03001, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
  17. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2006. "Meta-Analysis of the Business Cycle Correlation between the Euro Area and the CEECs," CESifo Working Paper Series 1693, CESifo Group Munich.
  18. Gunther Schnabl & Paul De Grauwe, 2004. "Nominal versus Real Convergence with Respect to EMU Accession - EMU Entry Scenarios for the New Member States," International Finance 0403008, EconWPA, revised 05 Jul 2004.
  19. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003. "Synchronised Business Cycles in East Asia and Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(8), pages 1067-1088, 08.
  20. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Holger C. Wolf, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Choices and Consequences," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262072408, December.
  21. Gunther Schnabl & Christian Danne, 2007. "A Role Model for China? Exchange Rate Flexibility and Monetary Policy in Japan," CESifo Working Paper Series 2051, CESifo Group Munich.
  22. McKinnon, Ronald I., 2004. "The East Asian dollar standard," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 325-330.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Gunther Schnabl & Andreas Hoffmann, 2008. "Monetary Policy, Vagabonding Liquidity and Bursting Bubbles in New and Emerging Markets: An Overinvestment View," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(9), pages 1226-1252, 09.
  2. Lula G. Mengesha & Mark J. Holmes, 2013. "Does Dollarization Alleviate Or Aggravate Exchange Rate Volatility?," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(2), pages 99-118, June.
  3. Rajan, Ramkishen, 2011. "Management of Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Asia," ADBI Working Papers 322, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  4. Brito, Márcio Holland de & Vieira, Flávio Vilela & Silva, Cleomar Gomes da & Bottecchia, Luiz Carlos, 2011. "Growth and exchange rate volatility: a panel data analysis," Textos para discussão 296, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  5. Aderbal Oliveira Damasceno & Flávio Vilela Vieir, 2014. "Desalinhamento Cambial, Volatilidade Cambial E Crescimento Econômico: Uma Análise Para A Economia Brasileira (1995-2011)," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 100, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  6. repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00565231 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Mathilde Maurel & Gunther Schnabl, 2011. "Keynesian and Austrian Perspectives on Crisis, Shock Adjustment, Exchange Rate Regime and (Long-Term) Growth," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 18-2011, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
  8. Andreas Hoffmann & Gunther Schnabl, 2011. "The theory of optimum currency areas and growth in emerging markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(6), pages 513-517.
  9. Evžen Kocenda & Mathilde Maurel & Gunther Schnabl, 2012. "Short-Term and Long-Term Growth Effects of Exchange Rate Adjustment," CESifo Working Paper Series 4018, CESifo Group Munich.
  10. Evžen Kočenda & Mathilde Maurel & Gunther Schnabl, 2012. "Short- and long-term growth effects of exchange rate adjustment," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00748599, HAL.

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