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Government spending multipliers in contraction and expansion

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This paper investigates the impact of government spending on output and the size of the spending multiplier during periods of output contraction vs. expansion. It also investigates the impact of spending when the economy hits the nominal zero lower bound. It uses a panel of 21 advanced countries over the period of 1979-2011, applying a TSLS estimation technique. We find a spending multiplier of close to 1 during expansion and values of up to 3 during contractions. However, our results do not indicate a difference in the impact of spending during nominal zero lower bound periods.

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  • Qazizada, W & Stockhammer, Engelbert, 2014. "Government spending multipliers in contraction and expansion," Economics Discussion Papers 2014-2, School of Economics, Kingston University London.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:kngedp:2014_002
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    3. Ant—nio Afonso & João Tovar Jalles & Ana Venâncio, 2023. "Government spending efficiency, measurement and applications: A cross-country efficiency dataset," Chapters, in: António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles & Ana Venâncio (ed.), Handbook on Public Sector Efficiency, chapter 3, pages 44-71, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Philipp Heimberger, 2017. "Did fiscal consolidation cause the double-dip recession in the euro area?," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 5(3), pages 439-458, July.
    5. Philipp Heimberger, 2020. "The dynamic effects of fiscal consolidation episodes on income inequality: evidence for 17 OECD countries over 1978–2013," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 53-81, February.
    6. Constantinos Alexiou & Joseph G. Nellis, 2017. "Cyclical Multiplier and Zero Low Bound Effects of Government Expenditure on Economic Growth: Evidence for Greece," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(2), pages 119-133, June.
    7. Charles, Sébastien, 2019. "Le multiplicateur budgétaire endogène au cycle dans un modèle macroéconomique post-keynésien [The state-dependent fiscal Multiplier in a Post-Keynesian Macroeconomic Model]," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 26.
    8. Eduardo Garzón Espinosa & Bibiana Medialdea García & Esteban Cruz Hidalgo, 2021. "Fiscal Policy Approaches: An Inquiring Look From The Modern Monetary Theory," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 999-1022, October.
    9. Alberto Botta, 2020. "The short- and long-run inconsistency of the expansionary austerity theory: a post-Keynesian/evolutionist critique," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 143-177, January.
    10. Paolo Piacentini, 2018. "The Demand Side vs. the Supply Side in the Analysis of Employment: The Potential for the Use of 'Employment Multipliers'," Economia & lavoro, Carocci editore, issue 1, pages 105-120.
    11. Gumede, Vusi & Bila, Santos, 2022. "Applying the National Income Identity Approach in Examining Determinants of Economic Growth in South Africa," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 10(2), April.
    12. Engelbert Stockhammer & Collin Constantine & Severin Reissl, 2020. "Explaining the Euro crisis: current account imbalances, credit booms and economic policy in different economic paradigms," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(2), pages 231-266, April.
    13. Alberto Botta & Daniele Tori, 2015. "A critique to the expansionary austerity: Theoretical weaknesses and empirical counter evidence," Working Papers PKWP1511, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    14. Bonam, Dennis & De Haan, Jakob & Soederhuizen, Beau, 2022. "The Effects Of Fiscal Policy At The Effective Lower Bound," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(1), pages 149-185, January.
    15. Philipp Heimberger, 2018. "The Dynamic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation Episodes on Income Inequality," wiiw Working Papers 147, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    16. Fabrício Pitombo Leite, 2015. "Taking Godley's Ratios Seriously," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(3), pages 508-533, July.
    17. Ashima Goyal & Bhavyaa Sharma, 2015. "Government expenditure in India: Composition, cyclicality and multipliers," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2015-032, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    18. Engelbert Stockhammer & Karsten Kohler, 2023. "Learning from distant cousins? Post-Keynesian Economics, Comparative Political Economy, and the Growth Models approach," Chapters, in: Thomas Palley & Esteban Pérez Caldentey & Matías Vernengo (ed.), Varieties of Capitalism, chapter 3, pages 56-75, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    19. Ashima Goyal & Bhavyaa Sharma, 2018. "Government Expenditure in India: Composition and Multipliers," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(1), pages 47-85, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal multiplier; fiscal policy; panel analysis; output contraction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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