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Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks in the European Transition Economies

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  • Mirdala, Rajmund

Abstract

EU member countries are currently exposed to negative implications of the economic and financial crisis. In connection with this problem arises the question of an anti-cyclic role of an economic policy or more precisely the (regulatory) role of the government in the economy that seems to be the centre of discussions in the academic as well as economic policy sphere. The problem of a permanent deficiency of the general government budget stresses many “old” as well as “new” EU member countries. It significantly reduces an expansionary potential of the national fiscal policies. Because the economic crisis seems to be a very difficult problem due to its specific and complex features, it is necessary for the EU member countries to coordinate the process of the national stimulatory actions approving that would help the countries to avoid an undesired reallocation of resources outside the EU single market as well as the negative common competitive effects. In the paper we analyze the effects of fiscal policy shocks in the Czech republic, Hungary, Poland, the Slovak republic, Bulgaria and Romania in the period 2000-2008. Our objective is to estimate the effects of discretionary changes in fiscal policy (associated with an increase in government expenditures) as well as the role of automatic stabilizers (associated with an increase in tax revenues). To meet the objective we estimate vector autoregression (VAR) model. To check the robustness of the results we implement an identification scheme based on two approaches. The first, recursive approach, is based on the Cholesky decomposition of innovations that allows us to identify structural shocks hitting the model. The second approach, structural VAR approach, is based on applying long-run restrictions to the reduced-form VAR model. From both identified true models we compute impulse-response functions to estimate the responses of real output, inflation and short term interest rates to the government expenditure and tax revenue shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Mirdala, Rajmund, 2009. "Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks in the European Transition Economies," MPRA Paper 19481, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:19481
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giuliodori, Massimo & Beetsma, Roel, 2004. "What are the spill-overs from fiscal shocks in Europe? An empirical analysis," Working Paper Series 325, European Central Bank.
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    3. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
    4. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2009. "Shocking aspects of monetary integration (SVAR approach)," MPRA Paper 17057, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Fisher, Jonas D. M., 2004. "Fiscal shocks and their consequences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 89-117, March.
    6. Srđan Redžepagić & Matthieu Llorca, 2007. "Does Politics Matter in the Conduct of Fiscal Policy? Political Determinants of the Fiscal Sustainability: Evidence from Seven Individual Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC)," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 54(4), pages 489-500, December.
    7. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; government expenditure; tax revenue; unrestricted VAR; Cholesky decomposition; SVAR; structural shocks; impulse-response function;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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