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Assessing the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in Colombia

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  • Ignacio Lozano

    ()

  • Karen Rodríguez

    ()

Abstract

The focus of this paper is on the short-term macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Colombia in a structural vector autoregression context. Government spending shocks are found to have positive and significant effects on output, private consumption, employment, prices and short-term interest rates. The cumulative output multiplier fluctuates between 1.12 and 1.19 from the first to third year after the spending innovation. Shocks to direct taxation seem to be less efficient, because they mainly affect private investment, whereas shocks to indirect taxation do not seem to affect real activities significantly. From a policy perspective, our results support the smoothing role of fiscal policy on output fluctuations, which implies its capacity to restore real activity effectively in critical times like the ones currently being forecast. From a theoretical standpoint, the results are consistent with real business cycle and Keynesian models of both traditional partial equilibrium and new general equilibrium types.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 552.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:552

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Keywords: Fiscal policy; government spending; taxation; structural vector autoregression. Classification JEL: E62; H50; H20; C32;

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References

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  1. Wolff, Guntram B. & Tenhofen, Jörn & Heppke-Falk, Kirsten H., 2006. "The macroeconomic effects of exogenous fiscal policy shocks in Germany: a disaggregated SVAR analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,41, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  2. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Employment: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In Government Spending And Taxes On Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368, November.
  4. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Razin, Assaf & Tesar, Linda L., 1994. "Effective tax rates in macroeconomics: Cross-country estimates of tax rates on factor incomes and consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 297-323, December.
  5. Jorge E. Restrepo & Hernán Rincón, 2006. "Identifying Fiscal Policy Shocks In Chile And Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002800, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  6. Evi Pappa, 2005. "New-keynesian or RBC transmission? The effects of fiscal shocks in labour markets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 524, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  7. Massimiliano Marcellino, . "Some stylized facts on non-systematic fiscal policy in the Euro area," Working Papers 225, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  8. Francisco de Castro, 2006. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Spain," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 913-924.
  9. Roberto Perotti, 2008. "In Search of the Transmission Mechanism of Fiscal Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 169-226 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Rodrigo Cerda & Hermann González & Luis Felipe Lagos, 2005. "Is Fiscal Policy Effective? Evidence for an Emerging Economy: Chile 1833-2000," Documentos de Trabajo 292, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
  11. Caldara, Dario & Kamps, Christophe, 2008. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks? A VAR-based comparative analysis," Working Paper Series 0877, European Central Bank.
  12. King, R.G. & Baxter, M., 1990. "Fiscal Policy In General Equilibrium," RCER Working Papers 244, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  13. Ignacio Lozano & Jorge Toro, . "Fiscal Policy Throughout the Cycle: The Colombian Experience," Borradores de Economia 434, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  14. Ignacio Lozano & Jorge Toro, 2007. "Fiscal Policy Throughout The Business Cycle: The Colombian Experience," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  15. David Aschauer, 1988. "Is public expenditure productive?," Staff Memoranda 88-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  16. Afonso, António & Ebert, Werner & Schuknecht, Ludger & Thöne, Michael, 2005. "Quality of public finances and growth," Working Paper Series 0438, European Central Bank.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Hernando Vargas & Andrés González & Ignacio Lozano, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Structural Fiscal Policy Changes in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 691, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  2. Carrillo, Paul A., 2010. "“Modelo Dinámico para Análisis y Pronóstico del Producto Interno Bruto”: Un Enfoque Fiscal Aplicando un Modelo SVAR
    [Dynamic Model for Analysis and Forecast of Gross Domestic Product': A Fis
    ," MPRA Paper 32005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Andrés González & Martha Rosalba López Piñeros & Norberto Rodríguez & Santiago Téllez, 2013. "Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy with Oil Sector and non-Ricardian Agents," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 010483, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  4. Cernadas, Luis, 2010. "Efectos macroeconómicos de la política fiscal: Evidencia empírica para Bolivia
    [Macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy: Empirical evidence from Bolivia]
    ," MPRA Paper 39696, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2011.
  5. Carrillo, Paul A., 2010. "Efectos Macroeconómicos de la Política Fiscal en Ecuador 1993-2009
    [Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in Ecuador 1993-2009]
    ," MPRA Paper 34436, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2011.

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