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“Modelo Dinámico para Análisis y Pronóstico del Producto Interno Bruto”: Un Enfoque Fiscal Aplicando un Modelo SVAR
[Dynamic Model for Analysis and Forecast of Gross Domestic Product': A Fiscal Approach Applying A Model SVAR]

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  • Carrillo, Paul A.

Abstract

This paper shows the dynamic relationships which the components of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) with direct and indirect taxes. We use a structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR) to examine the effect (temporary or permanent) of taxes on domestic production in Ecuador. The calibration of model was done based on research Gachet et al. (2010). This research is one of the first to incorporate restrictions in empirical VARs Ecuador. The main results are: i) the taxes have a temporary effect on the Ecuadorian economy. ii) the increase in indirect taxes have a negative effect on GDP, imports and exports. iii) a positive shock of direct taxes only have a positive effect on exports.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 32005.

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Date of creation: Apr 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:32005

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Keywords: Política Fiscal; PIB; SVAR; largo plazo; Ecuador Fiscal Policy; GDP; SVAR; long-term; Ecuador;

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  1. Keating, John W., 1996. "Structural information in recursive VAR orderings," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(9-10), pages 1557-1580.
  2. Jorge E. Restrepo & Hernán Rincón, 2006. "Identifying Fiscal Policy Shocks in Chile and Colombia," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 370, Central Bank of Chile.
  3. Rodrigo Cerda & Luis Felipe Lagos & Hermann González, 2005. "Efectos Dinámicos de la Política Fiscal," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 42(125), pages 63-77.
  4. Roberto Perotti, 2002. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Economics Working Papers 015, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
  5. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Ben S. Bernanke, 1986. "Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation," NBER Working Papers 1842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Ignacio Lozano & Karen Rodríguez, 2011. "Assessing the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Colombia," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 206-228, August.
  8. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  9. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," NBER Working Papers 7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16.
  11. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  12. Gachet, Ivan & Maldonado, Diego & Oliva, Nicolas & Ramirez, Jose, 2011. "Hechos Estilizados de la Economía Ecuatoriana: El Ciclo Económico 1965-2008
    [Stylized Facts of the Ecuadorian Economy: The Economic Chicle 1965-2008]
    ," MPRA Paper 30280, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. de Castro Fernández, Francisco & Hernández de Cos, Pablo, 2006. "The economic effects of exogenous fiscal shocks in Spain: a SVAR approach," Working Paper Series 0647, European Central Bank.
  14. K. Arin & Faik Koray, 2006. "Are some taxes different than others? An empirical investigation of the effects of tax policy in Canada," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 183-193, March.
  15. Perotti, Roberto, 2002. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Working Paper Series 0168, European Central Bank.
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