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“Modelo Dinámico para Análisis y Pronóstico del Producto Interno Bruto”: Un Enfoque Fiscal Aplicando un Modelo SVAR
[Dynamic Model for Analysis and Forecast of Gross Domestic Product': A Fiscal Approach Applying A Model SVAR]

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  • Carrillo, Paul A.

Abstract

This paper shows the dynamic relationships which the components of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) with direct and indirect taxes. We use a structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR) to examine the effect (temporary or permanent) of taxes on domestic production in Ecuador. The calibration of model was done based on research Gachet et al. (2010). This research is one of the first to incorporate restrictions in empirical VARs Ecuador. The main results are: i) the taxes have a temporary effect on the Ecuadorian economy. ii) the increase in indirect taxes have a negative effect on GDP, imports and exports. iii) a positive shock of direct taxes only have a positive effect on exports.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 32005.

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Date of creation: Apr 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:32005

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Keywords: Política Fiscal; PIB; SVAR; largo plazo; Ecuador Fiscal Policy; GDP; SVAR; long-term; Ecuador;

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  1. Ignacio Lozano & Karen Rodríguez, 2011. "Assessing the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Colombia," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 206-228, August.
  2. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
  3. Jorge E. Restrepo & Hernán Rincón, 2006. "Identifying Fiscal Policy Shocks in Chile and Colombia," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile 370, Central Bank of Chile.
  4. Roberto Perotti, 2002. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Economics Working Papers, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes 015, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
  5. Rodrigo Cerda & Luis Felipe Lagos & Hermann González, 2005. "Efectos Dinámicos de la Política Fiscal," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 42(125), pages 63-77.
  6. Keating, John W., 1996. "Structural information in recursive VAR orderings," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 20(9-10), pages 1557-1580.
  7. Perotti, Roberto, 2002. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0168, European Central Bank.
  8. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
  9. Gachet, Ivan & Maldonado, Diego & Oliva, Nicolas & Ramirez, Jose, 2011. "Hechos Estilizados de la Economía Ecuatoriana: El Ciclo Económico 1965-2008
    [Stylized Facts of the Ecuadorian Economy: The Economic Chicle 1965-2008]
    ," MPRA Paper 30280, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16.
  11. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Francisco de Castro & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2006. "The economic effects of exogenous fiscal shocks in Spain: a SVAR approach," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers, Banco de Espa�a 0604, Banco de Espa�a.
  13. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  14. K. Arin & Faik Koray, 2006. "Are some taxes different than others? An empirical investigation of the effects of tax policy in Canada," Empirical Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 183-193, March.
  15. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In Government Spending And Taxes On Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368, November.
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