Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Rational or irrational expectations? Evidence from China's stock market

Contents:

Author Info

  • Feng Gao
  • Fengming Song
  • Jun Wang
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Purpose – The paper aims to test the rational-expectations hypothesis using data from the Chinese stock market. Design/methodology/approach – The rational-expectations hypothesis plays a critical role in economic and financial studies. However, it is unclear whether this hypothesis is consistent with real-world decision making since existing empirical results are mixed. This paper tests the hypothesis directly using survey data from China's stock market by developing a technique to analyze discrete or limited independent-variable models. Findings – The paper shows that in China's stock market survey forecasts are overly optimistic, especially with positive information, and can be improved slightly using past information. Originality/value – The paper develops a technique to analyze the discrete or limited independent-variable model. Testing with Chinese stock market data provides some insights into the characteristics of emerging markets.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/journals.htm?issn=1526-5943&volume=9&issue=5&articleid=1752660&show=abstract
    Download Restriction: Cannot be freely downloaded

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Journal of Risk Finance.

    Volume (Year): 10 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 5 (November)
    Pages: 432-448

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:eme:jrfpps:v:10:y:2009:i:5:p:432-448

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.emeraldinsight.com

    Order Information:
    Postal: Emerald Group Publishing, Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley, BD16 1WA, UK
    Email:
    Web: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/jrf.htm

    Related research

    Keywords: China; Expectation; Financial forecasting; Stock markets;

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
    2. Lovell, Michael C, 1986. "Tests of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 110-24, March.
    3. LeRoy, Stephen F, 1989. "Efficient Capital Markets and Martingales," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1583-1621, December.
    4. Victor Zarnowitz, 1984. "Business Cycles Analysis and Expectational Survey Data," NBER Working Papers 1378, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Michaely, Roni & Womack, Kent L, 1999. "Conflict of Interest and the Credibility of Underwriter Analyst Recommendations," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 653-86.
    6. Prescott, Edward C., 1977. "Should control theory be used for economic stabilization?: A rejoinder," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 101-102, January.
    7. Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-35, September.
    8. Aggarwal, Raj & Mohanty, Sunil & Song, Frank, 1995. "Are Survey Forecasts of Macroeconomic Variables Rational?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(1), pages 99-119, January.
    9. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-617, December.
    10. Prescott, Edward C., 1977. "Should control theory be used for economic stabilization?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 13-38, January.
    11. Grant, Alan P. & Thomas, Lloyd B., 1999. "Inflationary expectations and rationality revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 331-338, March.
    12. Terence Lim, 2001. "Rationality and Analysts' Forecast Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 369-385, 02.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:jrfpps:v:10:y:2009:i:5:p:432-448. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Louise Lister).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.