Predicting Pork Supplies: An Application of Multiple Forecast Encompassing
AbstractConditional efficiency or forecast encompassing is tested among alternative pork production forecasts using the method proposed by Harvey and Newbold. One-, two-, and three-quarter ahead pork production forecasts made by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the University of Illinois and Purdue University Cooperative Extension Service, and those produced by a univariate time series model are evaluated. The encompassing tests provide considerably more information about forecast performance than a simple pair-wise test for equality of mean squared errors. The results suggest that at a one-quarter horizon, the Extension service forecasts encompass the competitors, but at longer horizon, a composite forecast may provide greater accuracy.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Southern Agricultural Economics Association in its journal Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
Volume (Year): 36 (2004)
Issue (Month): 03 (December)
composite forecasts; forecast encompassing; pork production; C53; Q13;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
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