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Multiple horizons and information in USDA production forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Dwight R. Sanders

    (Department of Agribusiness Economics, Southern Illinois University, Mailcode 4410, Carbondale, Illinois, 62901)

  • Mark R. Manfredo

    (Morrison School of Agribusiness and Resource Management, Arizona State University, 7001 E. Williams Field Rd., Wanner Hall, Mesa, AZ 85212)

Abstract

United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) livestock production forecasts are evaluated for their information content across multiple forecast horizons using the direct test developed by Vuchelen and Gutierrez (2005). Forecasts are explicitly tested for rationality (unbiased and efficient) as well as for incremental information out to three-quarters ahead. The results suggest that although the forecasts are often not rational, they typically do provide the forecast user with unique information at each horizon. Turkey and milk production forecasts are found to provide the most consistent performance, while beef production forecasts provide little information beyond the two-quarter horizon. [C53, Q13] © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Suggested Citation

  • Dwight R. Sanders & Mark R. Manfredo, 2008. "Multiple horizons and information in USDA production forecasts," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 55-66.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:agribz:v:24:y:2008:i:1:p:55-66
    DOI: 10.1002/agr.20146
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    Cited by:

    1. Bahram Sanginabadi, 2018. "USDA Forecasts: A meta-analysis study," Papers 1801.06575, arXiv.org.
    2. MacDonald, Stephen & Ash, Mark & Cooke, Bryce, 2017. "The Evolution of Inefficiency in USDA’s Forecasts of U.S. and World Soybean Markets," MPRA Paper 87545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Schnake, Kristin N. & Karali, Berna & Dorfman, Jeffrey H., 2012. "The Informational Content of Distant-Delivery Futures Contracts," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(2), pages 1-15, August.

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