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Improving The Relevance Of Research On Price Forecasting And Marketing Strategies

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Author Info
Brorsen, B. Wade
Irwin, Scott H.

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Abstract

Agricultural economists' research on price forecasting and marketing strategies has been used little by those in the real world. We argue that fresh approaches to research are needed. First, we argue that we need to adopt a new theoretical paradigm, noisy rational expectations. This paradigm suggests that gains from using price forecasting models with public data or from using a marketing strategy are not impossible, but any gains are likely to be small. We need to conduct falsification tests; to perform confirmation and replication; to adjust research to reflect structural changes, such as increased contracting; and always to conduct statistical tests. We also provide a modest agenda for changing our research and extension programs.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association in its journal Agricultural and Resource Economics Review.

Volume (Year): 25 (1996)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
Pages:
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Handle: RePEc:ags:arerjl:31655

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Related research
Keywords: Demand and Price Analysis; Marketing;

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  1. Irwin, Scott H. & Martines-Filho, Joao & Good, Darrel L., 2003. "The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans Over 1995-2001," AgMAS Project Research Reports 37510, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Bertoli, Roberto & Zuluaf, Carl R. & Irwin, Scott H. & Jackson, Thomas E. & Good, Darrel L., 1999. "The Marketing Style Of Advisory Services For Corn And Soybeans In 1995," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14792, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Klumpp, Joni M. & Brorsen, B. Wade & Anderson, Kim B., 2005. "The Impact of Marketing Strategy Information on the Producer's Selling Decision," 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri 19036, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. [Downloadable!]
  4. Cunningham, Lewis T., III & Brorsen, B. Wade & Anderson, Kim B., 2004. "Explaining Differences In Prices Received By Farmers: Testing Theory Based On Actual Farmer Transactions," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20275, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  5. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2006. "Forecasting Basis Levels in the Soybean Complex: A Comparison of Time Series Methods," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 38(03), December. [Downloadable!]
  6. Tomek, William G., 2000. "Commodity Prices Revisited," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 29(2), October. [Downloadable!]
  7. Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa & Tomek, William, 2001. "Income-Enhancing And Risk-Reducing Properties Of Marketing Practices," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20613, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  8. Kastens, Terry L. & Schroeder, Ted C. & Plain, Ron, 1998. "Evaluation Of Extension And Usda Price And Production Forecasts," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(01), July. [Downloadable!]
  9. Carl R. Zulauf & Scott H. Irwin, 1997. "Market Efficiency and Marketing to Enhance Income of Crop Producers," Finance 9711004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  10. Schroeder, Ted C. & Parcell, Joseph L. & Kastens, Terry L. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C., 1998. "Perceptions Of Marketing Strategies: Producers Versus Extension Economists," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(01), July. [Downloadable!]
  11. Tomek, William G. & Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa, 2000. "Risk Management In Agricultural Markets: A Survey," 2000 Producer marketing and Risk Management Conference, January 13-14, Orlando, FL 19580, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  12. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2003. "USDA Livestock Price Forecasts: A Comprehensive Evaluation," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(02), August. [Downloadable!]
  13. Brorsen, B. Wade & Anderson, Kim B., 1999. "Agricultural Economics Research And Extension Marketing Programs: How Well Are They Integrated?," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 17(2). [Downloadable!]
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