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How Much Can Outlook Forecasts be Improved? An Application to the U.S. Hog Market

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  • Colino, Evelyn V.
  • Irwin, Scott H.
  • Garcia, Philip

Abstract

This study investigates the predictability of outlook hog price forecasts released by Iowa State University relative to alternative market and time-series forecasts. The findings suggest that predictive performance of the outlook hog price forecasts can be improved substantially. Under RMSE, VARs estimated with Bayesian procedures that allow for some degree of flexibility and model averaging consistently outperform Iowa outlook estimates at all forecast horizons. Evidence from the encompassing tests, which are highly stringent tests of forecast performance, indicates that many price forecasts do provide incremental information relative to Iowa. Simple combinations of these models and outlook forecasts are able to reduce forecast errors by economically significant levels. The value of the forecast information is highest at the first horizon and then gradually declines.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management in its series 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri with number 37620.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ags:nccest:37620

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Keywords: forecast; futures; models; prices; time-series; vector autoregression; Agricultural Finance;

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