IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/ajagec/v70y1988i3p701-712..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Vector Autoregression Forecasting Models: Recent Developments Applied to the U.S. Hog Market

Author

Listed:
  • Michael S. Kaylen

Abstract

Bayesian estimation and the exclusion of variables are two basic approaches to the improvement of vector autoregression forecasting models. This study presents a method which combines and extends several techniques within the exclusion-of-variables approach. Several quarterly hog market models are estimated and out-of-sample forecasts from 1977 through 1984 are evaluated. The results suggest the proposed method compares favorably to other exclusion-of-variables techniques as well as to the more sophisticated bayesian approaches.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael S. Kaylen, 1988. "Vector Autoregression Forecasting Models: Recent Developments Applied to the U.S. Hog Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 70(3), pages 701-712.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:70:y:1988:i:3:p:701-712.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1241509
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Elitzak, Howard & Blisard, W. Noel, 1989. "Quarterly Forecasting of Meat Retail Prices: A Vector Autoregression Approach," Staff Reports 278232, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. P. Geoffrey Allen & Robert Fildes, 2005. "Levels, Differences and ECMs – Principles for Improved Econometric Forecasting," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 881-904, December.
    3. Colino, Evelyn V. & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip, 2008. "How Much Can Outlook Forecasts be Improved? An Application to the U.S. Hog Market," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37620, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    4. Chavas, Jean-Paul, 1999. "On The Economic Rationality Of Market Participants: The Case Of Expectations In The U.S. Pork Market," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(1), pages 1-19, July.
    5. Xiaojie Xu, 2017. "Short-run price forecast performance of individual and composite models for 496 corn cash markets," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(14), pages 2593-2620, October.
    6. Florkowski, Wojciech J. & Lai, Yue, 1997. "Cointegration Between Prices of Pecans and Other Edible Nuts: Forecasting and Implications," 1997 Annual Meeting, July 13-16, 1997, Reno\ Sparks, Nevada 35870, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    7. Obalade Adefemi Alamu & Ebiwonjumi Ayooluwade & Adaramola Anthony Olugbenga, 2019. "Var Modelling of Dynamics of Poverty, Unemployment, Literacy and Per Capita Income in Nigeria," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 19(1), pages 73-88, June.
    8. Xiaojie Xu, 2020. "Corn Cash Price Forecasting," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(4), pages 1297-1320, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:70:y:1988:i:3:p:701-712.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.