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On The Economic Rationality Of Market Participants: The Case Of Expectations In The U.S. Pork Market

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Author Info

  • Chavas, Jean-Paul

Abstract

This study investigates the nature of price expectations in a competitive market. The approach is illustrated in an application to the U.S. pork market, which exhibits cyclical patterns and biological production lags. Pork price equations are estimated under different expectation regimes. The empirical results suggest the presence of heterogeneous price expectations among market participants. A large proportion of the market (73%) is found to be associated with backward-looking expectations, where future prices are anticipated on the basis of their observed historical patterns.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30882
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Western Agricultural Economics Association in its journal Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

Volume (Year): 24 (1999)
Issue (Month): 01 (July)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:30882

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Web page: http://waeaonline.org/
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Related research

Keywords: Agribusiness;

References

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  1. Eckstein, Zvi, 1984. "A Rational Expectations Model of Agricultural Supply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(1), pages 1-19, February.
  2. Chow, Gregory C, 1989. "Rational versus Adaptive Expectations in Present Value Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(3), pages 376-84, August.
  3. repec:att:wimass:9506 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Sherwin Rosen & Kevin M. Murphy & Jose A. Scheinkman, 1993. "Cattle Cycles," NBER Working Papers 4403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Hayes, Dermot J. & Schmitz, Andrew, 1987. "Hog Cycles and Countercyclical Production Response," Staff General Research Papers 597, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  6. Shonkwiler, John Scott & Spreen, Thomas H., 1986. "Statistical Significance And Stability Of The Hog Cycle," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 18(02), December.
  7. Nerlove, Marc & Fornari, Ilaria, 1998. "Quasi-rational expectations, an alternative to fully rational expectations: An application to US beef cattle supply," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 129-161.
  8. Orazem, Peter & Miranowski, John, 1986. "An Indirect Test for the Specification of Expectation Regimes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(4), pages 603-09, November.
  9. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1995. "Rational Routes to Randomness," Working Papers 95-03-029, Santa Fe Institute.
  10. Holt, Matthew T & Johnson, Stanley R, 1989. "Bounded Price Variation and Rational Expectations in an Endogenous Switching Model of the U.S. Corn Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 605-13, November.
  11. Foster, Kenneth A & Burt, Oscar R, 1992. "A Dynamic Model of Investment in the U.S. Beef-Cattle Industry," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 419-26, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Hommes, C.H., 2001. "Modeling the stylized facts in finance through simple nonlinear adaptive systems," CeNDEF Working Papers 01-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  2. Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa & Tomek, William G., 2000. "Implications Of Deflating Commodity Prices For Time-Series Analysis," 2000 Conference, April 17-18 2000, Chicago, Illinois 18944, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  3. Chao, Hui-Ping, 1998. "Regime Switching In Us Livestock Cycles," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20824, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  4. Arnaud Rault & Stéphane Krebs, 2011. "Catastrophic risk and risk management, what do we know about livestock epidemics? State of the art and prospects," Working Papers SMART - LERECO 11-05, INRA UMR SMART.
  5. Frechette, Darren L., 1999. "The Supply Of Storage Under Heterogeneous Expectations," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(03), December.
  6. Tomek, William G., 2000. "Commodity Prices Revisited," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 29(2), October.
  7. Femenia, Fabienne & Alexandre, Gohin, 2009. "Dynamic modelling of agricultural policies: the role of expectation schemes," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51665, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  8. Kim, In Seck & Plain, Ronald L. & Bullock, J. Bruce & Jei, Sang Young, 2008. "Correction of Measurement Error in Monthly USDA Pig Crop: Generating Alternative Data Series," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 40(02), August.
  9. repec:att:wimass:9706 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Brorsen, B. Wade, 2009. "Research: Are We Valuing the Right Stuff?," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(1), April.
  11. Femenia, Fabienne, 2010. "Impacts of Stockholding Behaviour on Agricultural Market Volatility: A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Approach," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 59(3).
  12. Imad A. Moosa, 2004. "What Is Wrong with Market-Based Forecasting of Exchange Rates?," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business, and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 3(2), pages 107-121, August.
  13. Plantinga, Andrew J. & Provencher, Bill, 2001. "Internal Consistency In Models Of Optimal Resource Use Under Uncertainty," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20712, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  14. SaangJoon Baak, 1999. "Heterogeneous Expectations, Market Dynamics, and Social Welfare," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 222, Society for Computational Economics.

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