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Rational versus Adaptive Expectations in Present Value Models

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Chow, Gregory C

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Abstract

Using data on stock price and dividends, and on long-term and short-term interest rates, the authors test an important implication of present value models--that current value is a linear function of the conditional expectations of the next-period value and the current determining variable . This implication, combined with rational expectations, is strongly rejected. Combined with adaptive expectations, it is accepted. The latter model can also explain the observed negative relation between the rate of return and stock price. Thus the rational expectations assumption should be used with caution; the adaptive expectations assumption may be useful in econometric practice. Copyright 1989 by MIT Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Review of Economics & Statistics.

Volume (Year): 71 (1989)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 376-84
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:71:y:1989:i:3:p:376-84

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  1. Mª Jose Gutierrez & Jesús Vazquez, 2003. "Markov Switching Risk Premium and the term structure of interest rates," DFAEII Working Papers 200224, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II. [Downloadable!]
  2. Atanas Christev, 2005. "The Hyperinflation Model of Money Demand (or Cagan Revisited): Some New Empirical Evidence from the 1990s," CERT Discussion Papers 0507, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University. [Downloadable!]
  3. Chan G. Huh & Kevin J. Lansing, 1998. "Expectations, credibility, and disinflation in a small macroeconomic model," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory and Econometrics 98-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Mª Jose Gutierrez & Jesús Vazquez, 2003. "Switching equilibria. The Present Value Model for Stock Prices Revisited," DFAEII Working Papers 200226, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Gregory C. Chow, 2003. "Shanghai Stock Prices as Determined by the Present Value Model," Finance 0306003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  6. María José Gutiérrez & Jesús Vázquez, . "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Post-War U.S. Interest Rates and Changes in the Federal Reserve Chairman. Is There a Link?," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 01-03, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  7. Kevin J. Lansing, 2005. "Lock-in of extrapolative expectations in an asset pricing model," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2004-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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