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Cattle Cycles, Heterogeneous Expectations and the Age Distribution of Capital

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  • David Aadland

    (Utah State University)

Abstract

This paper builds a dynamic forward-looking model describing the approximate ten-year cattle cycle. The theoretical model improves on existing models by (1) keeping track of the age distribution of the capital stock, (2) allowing for heterogeneous expectations, and (3) recognizing that cow-calf operators make investment decisions on both the cow and calf margins. The model is then calibrated and used to simulate artificial data that endogenously generates ten-year cycles in the total stock of cattle.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/othr/papers/0211/0211002.pdf
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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Others with number 0211002.

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Date of creation: 15 Nov 2002
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpot:0211002

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Cited by:
  1. Arango, Santiago & Moxnes, Erling, 2012. "Commodity cycles, a function of market complexity? Extending the cobweb experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 321-334.
  2. Zhao, Zishun & Wahl, Thomas I. & Marsh, Thomas L., 2006. "Invasive Species Management: Foot-and-Mouth Disease in the U.S. Beef Industry," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25490, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  3. Bovi, Maurizio, 2013. "Are the representative agent’s beliefs based on efficient econometric models?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 633-648.
  4. Ranjan, Ram & Lubowski, Ruben N., 2004. "A Model of Producer Incentives for Livestock Disease Management," Working Papers 15653, University of Florida, International Agricultural Trade and Policy Center.
  5. Stockton, Matthew C. & Van Tassell, Larry W., 2007. "The Cattle Price Cycle: An Exploration in Simulation," 2007 Conference, April 16-17, 2007, Chicago, Illinois 37564, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  6. Ranjan, Ram & Lubowski, Ruben N., 2004. "A Model Of Producer Incentives For Livestock Disease Management," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20146, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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